Trump’s endorsements will contribute to his downfall in 2024: columnist

If Donald Trump’s recent track record of pushing candidates he endorsed across the finish line is any indication, the former president may have reason to be worried about his own prospects going into the 2024 race, a Washington Post columnist said Wednesday.

Philip Bump cites the finding of a 2020 University of Amsterdam study that determined that Trump’s endorsements cost Republicans 11 House seats in the 2018 midterm elections.

A more recent study from the same school indicates Trump’s endorsements provide a major boost to Republican candidates seeking their own party’s nomination but hurts them – albeit by a much smaller margin – when they face off against Democrats in general elections.

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The study determined that over the three most recent election cycles, a Trump endorsement boosted a candidate’s popularity by 14 points.

Michael Heseltine, who led the study, told Bump that, “Endorsed candidates received a consistent and substantial electoral benefit in Republican primary elections…with these benefits growing marginally over time. Trump’s endorsements came increasingly early in the election cycle, with an increased focus on backing likely winners and rewarding political allies during the primaries.”

But the study also determined that Trump’s endorsement hurt candidates when they squared off against Democrats, by around 1.5 percentage points.

Bump writes that: “This pattern still looms over Trump. He has endorsed a candidate in the 2024 Republican presidential primary: Donald Trump. That has helped power him to a big advantage over DeSantis and the other candidates. But Democrats are hopeful that should he win the nomination, he will serve as a strong incentive for voters lukewarm about President Biden to come out and vote against Trump. In other words, they’re hoping that the negative effect works on Trump himself, too.”

Read the full article here.