We all know that elections in the United States have changed since Donald Trump arrived on the political scene, but a report shows that those differences are often working to the benefit of Democrats, according to an analysis by The Washington Post.
The Post analyzed data provided in a new report by the Democratic data analytics firm Catalist, which purports to provide a comprehensive analysis of the 2022 contest. Some of the findings from the report run counter to "conventional wisdom," according to Dan Balz, chief correspondent for the Post.
"The report finds that there were two elections in 2022: one in the highly contested states and another in states without competitive statewide contests," Balz wrote. "There was no national trend that produced swings across the board as in past elections. Where 2022 broke ranks with past midterm patterns, it favored Democrats."
Balz noted that, while Trump's 2016 victory changed the game, "Republicans have struggled since then."
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"The 2018 election produced a century-high turnout for a midterm race along with a Democratic wave that knocked Republicans from power in the House," the reporter added. "The 2020 election produced the biggest vote total in the history of the United States, putting President Biden in the White House and giving Democrats a narrow majority in the Senate."
Then came the 2022 midterms, which served as the basis of the report.
"The 2022 midterm election was another stunner. It produced a sizable turnout again, short of 2018 in total votes but nonetheless substantial and, contrary to historical patterns, did not result in the kind of gains that the party out of power, in this case Republicans, had expected," Balz said. "There was no red wave. Republicans captured the House but with a far narrower majority than anticipated. Meanwhile, Democrats added one seat to their 50-50 Senate majority, defying Republican hopes of taking control of that chamber as well."
