New swing state Trump polling is making 'Democrats jump for joy': data analyst

President Donald Trump is constitutionally prohibited from serving a third term in the White House, but new polling shows he would have a hard time winning two key states he picked up just over a year ago.

The 79-year-old president won both Pennsylvania and Wisconsin on his way to re-election in 2024, but CNN's Harry Enten said his unpopularity in those key battleground states could cost Republicans their congressional majorities this fall.

"You know, as Wisconsin and Pennsylvania go, so go thenation, and right now thepresident is going down, goingdown like Sonny Liston," Enten said. "What arewe talking about here? Okay,Trump's approval rating, keyswing states in Wisconsin down,down – negative-10 points. Ofcourse, he won that state byabout a point back in 2024. Howabout Pennsylvania? Down down to minus-15 points on the net approvalrating in Pennsylvania, a statehe won in 2016 and 2024 lost in2020. As I said, as go Pennsylvaniaand Wisconsin, so goes thenation. In this case, Donald Trump is going down in both ofthem."

Both states have been closely contested in each of the last three elections, and Enten looked into the reasons that Trump is sinking so soon after winning there.

"What is drivingthese numbers, what is driving President Trump down?" Enten said. "It's hishandling of the economy. It'sthis thing that we're seeingnationally impacting in the keyswing states, because just takea look here. Okay, Trump and theeconomy, swing state voters, Pennsylvania, Trump's economicapproval rating 56 percent. Thatdoesn't work for Republicans, that doesn't work for Donald Trump either. How about in Wisconsin, say Trump's policiesraise inflation again, you getthe majority, 53 percent."

"These numberstracking very closely with howthose voters feel overall inthose two key swing states, andagain, Donald Trump underwater,his economic disapproval, wellmore than a majority at thispoint, and look at this, say Trump's policies raiseinflation, 53 percent," he added. "How do you workwith that if you're Donald Trump or Republicans?"

Those numbers are a bad sign for GOP chances in November, the data analyst said.

"Wetalk about Donald Trump but thequestion is always does thatmake its way down ballot?" Enten said. "Doesthat in fact impact the Houseraces in Pennsylvania, thecommonwealth of Pennsylvania.Just take a look here, okay,U.S. House in Pennsylvania, 2024results look very similar to howthey voted for president.Republicans won it by two points,but look at this – it's adifferent world, it's a differentworld. Look at this, the 2026polling, Democrats are ahead bysix points on the genericballot in the greatcommonwealth of Pennsylvania."

"Sowhat we're seeing up top isfunneling its way down ballot, and these are the types ofnumbers that have to make Democrats jump for joy, becausethese are the types of numbersthat suggest that they are, infact, going to take back the House come November," he added.

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