President Donald Trump’s job approval has sunk to its worst level in the New York Times/Siena poll’s history, and voters now trust Democrats more on the economy, long a Trump strength, according to a survey released two weeks before the 2026 midterms.
The poll of 3,494 likely voters, conducted October 12 to 19, found 36 percent approve of Trump and 59 percent disapprove. Among all registered voters, approval falls to 34 percent. Over two-thirds of independents disapprove. Voters say they’d back Democratic House candidates by 11 points. The poll's margin of error is 1.9 points.
Economic frustration is the driver. Three in four voters call the economy fair or poor, and large majorities disapprove of his work on the cost of living (69 percent), the Iran war (65 percent) and gas prices, now above $4 nationwide and as high as $6 in certain states and certain fuel types.
Democrats, meanwhile, hold a 15-point trust edge on the cost of living and 8 points on the economy. Most voters now see them as the party of the working class and as likelier to keep promises, reversals from earlier years. The party has also won back some men, young voters and Hispanic voters who helped elect Trump. White voters without college degrees, historically the most integral part of the Trump coalition, are about split on the president, 48 percent approving to 46 percent disapproving.
Paul Gettings, a Republican who lost his job in June and voted for Trump in 2024, told The Times he plans to vote Democratic this year, citing the MAGA movement's “empty promises.”
Trump still holds his base, with 82 percent of Republicans approving. Immigration is rising as a concern, and Democrats’ lead on it has narrowed. The poll also found weakness for Democrats: just 28 percent of voters are satisfied with the party, including only a little over half of Democrats themselves. This, however, is at least partly driven by voters who want Democrats to be doing more to resist the Trump agenda.