'There will be blood': JPMorgan warns recession odds skyrocketed after 'substantial shock'

A day after issuing a scathing assessment of President Donald Trump's key economic agenda, JPMorgan’s top economist raised estimates the odds of a global recession at 60%.

Analysts at JPMorgan Chase warned late Wednesday that the impact of Trump’s new set of tariffs — which they dubbed “the largest tax increase since the Revenue Act of 1968" — could take the economy “perilously close to slipping into recession.”

On Thursday, Bruce Kasman, the firm's top economist, issued a stark follow-up.

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"The risk of recession in the global economy this year is raised to 60%, up from 40%,” Kasman told clients, in a note titled, "There will be blood,” according to Bloomberg.

“The effect of this tax hike is likely to be magnified — through retaliation, a slide in US business sentiment, and supply chain disruptions,” Kasman added, noting, however, that: “We are not making immediate changes to our forecasts and want to see the initial implementation and negotiation process that takes hold."

Trump announced sweeping new tariffs on Wednesday as he celebrated "Liberation Day." In doing so, he imposed a baseline 10% tariff on imports from all countries, with higher rates for nations deemed "uncooperative." Some tariffs could reach as high as 50% for specific countries beginning April 9.

Trump slapped a 25% tariff on imported vehicles and auto parts, and existing 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum were reaffirmed and expanded.

The announcement sent U.S. stock markets reeling, with the Dow Jones dropping over 1,500 points, or 3.7%, the S&P 500 falling 4.3%, and the Nasdaq plummeting 5.6%.

Kasman warned that his team views the "full implementation of announced policies as a substantial macroeconomic shock not currently incorporated in our forecasts."

“We thus emphasize that these policies, if sustained, would likely push the US and possibly global economy into recession this year," warned Kasman.