Voters will head to the polls Thursday in New Jersey to decide on a replacement to fill the U.S. House seat most recently held by Democratic Gov. Mikie Sherrill, and CNN's Harry Enten is closely watching that special election as a bellwether for the midterm elections.
Democrat Analilia Mejia will face off against Republican Joe Hathaway in the 11th Congressional District election, which Enten said could go a long way toward predicting the results of November's contest for control of Congress
"A blowout is brewing, it seemslike a blowout is brewing, according to the Kalshi prediction market," Enten said. "Take a lookhere: Chance that the Democratwins in the New Jersey specialelection by at least 24 points – look at this, a 79 percent chance in adistrict that Kamala Harris won,but just by nine points. Sowe're thinking at this point,at least according to those whoare putting their money wheretheir mouth is, that the Democrats can outperform by atleast 15 points and the chanceof an overall victory, at least99 percent at this point."
One of the big reasons wecare is because in my mind, ifin fact the predictions holdtrue, it is emblematic," he added. "It isemblematic, New Jersey 11 isemblematic of what is going onin the suburbs, and Donald John Trump, take a look here. Okay,let's take a look: Suburbanvoters on Trump in October of2024, according to Fox News, hewas leading among suburbanvoters over Kamala Harris by twopoints. But look at his netapproval now. Down he goes intothe New Jersey swamps. Look atthat, minus-20 points, an over 20-pointshift away from Donald Trump among suburban voters very muchlike the suburban voters in New Jersey's 11th district."
The president's approval among suburban voters is important to Republican candidates because most voters live in the suburbs.
"I willnote that the plurality ofvoters are in the suburbs, that's why they're also soimportant," Enten said. "Well, it's about theeconomy. Look at this:Suburbanites on Trump and theeconomy ... What a shift this is.Harris vs. Trump, Harris wasbehind Trump, Trump led by sixpoints when it came to whovoters trusted more on theeconomy back in 2024. Look athim now, look at Donald Trump now – down he goes again, minus-32points, a nearly 40-point shiftwhen it comes to the economy andsuburban voters and Donald Trump. Suburban voters haveturned on Donald Trump."
"If this holds for themidterm elections that are goingto be happening in November, there is no way on God's greenearth that Republicans will comeanywhere close to holding theU.S. House of Representatives," he added. "They will, in fact, get blownout if these numbers hold."