Republicans already bracing for a rough midterm now have another problem: the rural voters who powered Trump's coalition may simply stay home.
Only about 4 in 10 rural voters approve of President Donald Trump's handling of the economy, according to a new Associated Press-KFF poll cited by MS NOW's Zeeshan Aleem on Thursday.
The survey, which polled more than 2,000 rural voters over two weeks starting in mid-August, found that "the costs of groceries, gas and healthcare rank as top pain points" for this group, with rural voters more worried about affording groceries and gas than voters overall. "About half of rural American voters believe the economy is worse off now than when President Donald Trump returned to office," the survey found, and Trump's overall approval sits at just 48% with rural voters.
That's "trouble for the GOP," Aleem wrote, noting nearly 7 in 10 rural voters backed Trump in both 2020 and 2024.
Pointing out that "another key part of Trump’s base appears to be cooling on him," the MS NOW analyst made his case that a string of Trump policies that have battered rural economies, including his August move to import hundreds of thousands of tons of ground beef which has "enraged cattle ranchers," his trade war with China has cost the agriculture industry billions in lost sales, his Iran war has pushed diesel prices to "eyewatering highs," and "surging fertilizer prices have hit the wallets of already cash-strapped farmers."
According to Aleem, "Rural voters are about one-fifth of the electorate, essential to the Republican base, and small swings within the demographic can be decisive in tight elections. This year, it’ll be especially important in competitive races in states with significant rural populations, such as Maine, Michigan and Ohio. The more Trump appears to take his base for granted, the worse the outcome might be for his party come November."