‘Head scratcher’: Trump’s big fix for fuel crisis unravels as experts point to basic math

Energy experts found that the first shipment of Russian diesel President Donald Trump touted as a price fix would keep the United States supplied for only a matter of hours.

Trump announced the deal Friday on Truth Social after a phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin. He wrote that Russia would “immediately supply over 300,000 Tons of Diesel Fuel to the American and Global Marketplace.”

He promised 500,000 more tons in November, 1 million tons after that and 3 million more “within a short period of time,” depending on the condition of Russia’s refineries. Trump said diesel prices would be “COMING DOWN, IN RECORD NUMBERS, AND FAST!”

Diesel still averaged $6.23 a gallon nationwide, according to American Automobile Association figures cited by the Associated Press, after hitting a record $6.52 on Sept. 22.

Javier Blas, Bloomberg’s energy and commodities columnist, wrote on X that 300,000 tons is equivalent to only 2.2 million barrels, according to The New Republic.

He said the commitments were too small to make a “meaningful impact” on the surge in diesel prices.

“According to the BBC, the U.S. uses roughly 3.6 million barrels of diesel fuel per day, which works out to 491,000 metric tons. So... 300,000 tons of diesel is about 14-15 hours worth of U.S. supply,” immigration policy analyst Aaron Reichlin-Melnick wrote on X.

“The 300,000 tons of diesel fuel the President says will be made available from Russia amounts to about 2.25 million barrels, which is less than the US uses for transportation in a single day, which makes the deal all the more of a head scratcher,” NBC News chief White House correspondent Garrett Haake wrote on X.

A metric ton of diesel equals about 7.45 barrels. At that rate, even the full 4.8 million tons Trump promised would cover about 10 days of U.S. demand, based on the daily figure the BBC reported from the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

American refiners export 1.2 million to 1.5 million barrels of diesel a day, the BBC also reported. At that pace, the first Russian shipment equals less than two days of U.S. exports.

Trump ruled out halting those exports on Oct. 2, telling reporters at the White House that “we’re not going to be doing the export ban,” according to The Hill. He had floated the idea in September as prices climbed.

Oil analyst Andy Lipow said the first two Russian shipments are “quite small” compared with the entire global diesel market, according to The Hill.

Lipow said the 3 million tons would be more significant and could bring “some relief on diesel prices” if Russia comes up with the fuel.

The Treasury Department said Friday on X that it was immediately issuing a temporary license to allow the supply of Russian diesel to the global market.

The move came a month after Trump signed a sweeping Russia sanctions law aimed at the country’s energy economy, according to the AP.

“Congress just voted to increase the president’s authority to punish Russia economically. Instead, he throws them a lifeline by allowing these massive diesel buys,” Haake wrote in another post.

The White House did not immediately respond to AP questions about who is paying for the diesel, when it would become available or whether November’s shipment would arrive before the Nov. 3 midterm elections.