Longtime GOP strategist Frank Luntz had a harsh warning for Capitol Hill on CNN Friday afternoon as the government shutdown drags on into its second week: don't let the two most electorally important groups become a casualty of the standoff, or they will blitz the ballot box with a vengeance.
There currently appears to be no end in sight to the impasse, with Democrats demanding an extension of Affordable Care Act subsidies for millions of people whose premiums are set to go up, and Republicans refusing to discuss the matter until a clean bill is passed reopening federal agencies. Meanwhile, the Trump administration is seizing on the chaos to lay off thousands more federal workers.
"I've been critical of both sides and how they've communicated, because there doesn't seem to be the desire to end this," said Luntz. "Instead, there's the desire to pin the tail on the donkey, and in the end, that won't be good enough. In the end, the public expects something better from their elected officials."
"We see your Go Army spirit finger over your right shoulder there, and you can't ignore, Frank, military families are getting hosed in this, right?" said anchor Brianna Keilar. "We're expecting they're going to miss a paycheck next week, another one, if this goes on. How much does that factor into the politics of this?"
"Significantly," said Luntz.
"There are two things that you do not do in the shutdown," he continued. You do not punish social security recipients because hell hath no fury like a senior who's been denied their benefits even for a few days. And the other group that you do not punish are people are men and women in uniform. Both of those will be significant players."
"And if that should happen in the end, there will be hell to pay at the ballot box," Luntz added. "People do forgive. Issues happen, crises happen, and moods change. But if you deny our people in uniform their salaries, their benefits, you're going to have a problem months or even on election day a year from now."