Republicans insist that the "Big, Beautiful Bill," plus President Donald Trump's tariff and immigration policies, could energize the U.S. economy. But a nonpartisan scorekeeper reports Friday that this claim is not true, calling it a "drag on growth" ahead of the 2028 elections.
A new report from the Congressional Budget Office predicts that "over the next three years, policies implemented this year by Trump and the Republican-led Congress will have little effect on growth before the 2028 election," Politico reports.
"In 2027 and 2028, the effects of reduced net immigration on the labor force and the waning of the reconciliation act’s near-term boost to demand act as a drag on growth," according to the report. "Partially offsetting those effects, an increase in domestic production, driven by higher tariffs, provides a boost to economic growth. As a result, real GDP growth in those years is roughly the same as it was in CBO’s January 2025 projections."
Elevated uncertainty over tariffs and substantial policy changes are estimated to have a ripple effect. And although the president's tariff policies could cool and later rev up, that boost could wane, the forecast expects.
"At the end of 2028, the level of real GDP is about 0.1 percent higher than it was in CBO’s January 2025 projections because of the economic effects of the reconciliation act, higher tariffs, and lower net immigration; the effects of interactions among those factors; and adjustments to reflect recently published data," according to the CBO report.
The agency plans to publish its economic projections for 2026 to 2036 as part of The Budget and Economic Outlook.