Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance just suffered a humiliating foreign policy defeat that exposes the severe limits of American influence abroad — and signals potential disaster for the GOP in the midterm elections.
According to the Washington Post's Michael Birnbaum, Trump's decision to personally intervene in Hungary's election by dispatching Vance to campaign for strongman Viktor Orban not only failed catastrophically, but also damaged Republican credibility on the international stage.
Orban had been a darling of the American right, preaching to conservatives at CPAC about seizing control of institutions. "Have your own media," Orban once declared, "it was the only way to combat the 'insanity of the progressive left.'" He aligned perfectly with Trump's worldview, opposing NATO aid to Ukraine and framing it as anti-war rather than pro-democracy.
Trump returned the embrace enthusiastically by exempting Hungary from energy sanctions imposed on other European countries, and Vance personally campaigned for Orban, telling Hungarians they had a guaranteed friend in Washington if they reelected their prime minister.
It wasn't enough. Orban was decisively defeated. A constitutional supermajority for the opposition will now rewrite election laws that Orban had previously reshaped to favor his own party — a stunning reversal of fortune for Trump's endorsed candidate.
Vance attempted to minimize the damage, claiming "I'm sad that he lost. We will work very well, I'm sure, with the next prime minister of Hungary. It wasn't a bad trip at all because it's worth standing by people, even if you don't win every race."
But Republicans are furious. Rep. Don Bacon (R-NE), who is retiring, blasted the intervention as a norm-breaking disaster that backfired spectacularly.
"President Trump and Vice President Vance broke the norms by going and campaigning for a candidate in another democracy," Bacon said. "It's not appropriate to do it, and then they failed. So it's like a double-dumb move, and it just undermines us."
The strategic implications are dire. One Republican strategist with extensive European experience warned that Orban's ouster is "a harbinger" for what might come in the midterm elections this fall.
"If you don't define your campaign on an issue set that gets your base energized to turnout in huge numbers, it will be a problem," the strategist told the Post.