The voters who know the least about politics, many of whom helped power Donald Trump’s 2024 win, have moved away from him and toward Democrats faster than their better-informed peers, according to analysis by pollster G. Elliott Morris.
Trump’s worsening problems with other key voting blocs that powered him back to the White House, including nonwhite men and younger people, have been well documented. Morris’s findings point to another group drifting away: low-information voters.
Morris’s October Strength In Numbers/Verasight poll surveyed 2,028 adults from Oct. 13-19. Two quiz questions asked which party holds the most seats in the House and in the Senate.
Respondents who missed at least one were labeled “low-knowledge.” That’s roughly three in 10 adults, and a quarter of 2024 Trump voters.
Low-knowledge voters, who backed Trump by 8 points in 2024, now give him a net approval rating of -27, a 35-point drop by Morris’s math. High-knowledge voters, who narrowly backed Kamala Harris, give him -24, a 23-point drop.
The difference carries over to the House race. Low-knowledge voters went from favoring Trump by 8 to favoring Democrats by 12, nearly triple the swing among high-knowledge voters. Among 2024 Trump voters, 18% of low-knowledge respondents plan to vote for Democrats for the House, compared with 6% of high-knowledge respondents.
They’re also much less enthusiastic about his signature issues. Low-knowledge Trump voters rate his handling of immigration at +34, against +74 for better-informed Trump voters, and they disapprove of his handling of prices.
Morris says the least-informed voters switch parties most easily, and likely backed Trump out of frustration with prices, not MAGA ideology. If Democrats don’t deliver, he warns, those voters could swing back.