A third world war could soon “technically” come to pass if Donald Trump’s presence in the White House encourages China to attack Taiwan, a former UK Foreign Secretary said.
“To me, there is a very dangerous scenario in which [Russian President Vladimir] Putin gets something he can describe as a win in Ukraine and China thinks that they will have a crack at Taiwan while Trump is still president, because they don't think in a month of Sundays he would actually send American troops to defend Taiwan,” Jeremy Hunt said.
“If that happened, it would potentially be technically a world war, because you could have conflict in Europe and in Asia at the same time, with a whole set of alliances behind Ukraine and Taiwan and another set of alliances behind China and Russia.”
Trump has long opposed US aid to Ukraine in its fight against Russian invaders. Amid widespread speculation about the US president’s apparent closeness to Putin, Trump has also failed to deliver on campaign trail promises to swiftly end the war.
Trump's commitment to Taiwan, long close to the U.S., has long been questioned. U.S. intelligence reportedly believes Chinese president Xi Jinping has told generals to be ready to invade the self-governing island by 2027.
Hunt was speaking to the One Decision podcast, hosted by Kate McCann, a reporter, and Sir Richard Dearlove, a former head of the British intelligence service MI6.
Hunt, a Conservative, was foreign secretary from July 2018 to July 2019, while Trump was first in the White House. From October 2022 to July 2024, Hunt was chancellor of the exchequer. Though his party is now out of power, he remains an MP.
On One Decision, Dearlove described Trump’s “achievement” in “bully[ing] the Europeans, particularly Germany” to “up their defense spending” in the face of Russia’s growing threat.
Though Hunt agreed with Dearlove that Trump was “a problem solver” on issues such as immigration, he said he “profoundly disagree[d] with [Trump on] Ukraine.”
Describing a liking for playing “fantasy politics,” about what he would do were he still in office, Hunt said: “It's very clear that Trump doesn't want to defend Europe, and doesn't doesn't believe it's his job to defend Europe, but we know that we cannot defend ourselves because we're totally dependent on the US military presence in Europe and Ukraine is completely dependent on US military support.
“So therefore the most important thing is to play for time, because what would be catastrophic is an immediate American withdrawal of support. We could perhaps cope if they withdrew it in five or 10 years time, while we ramp up our own defensive capabilities.
“But the most important thing is, therefore, not to do anything that provokes an immediate withdrawal. And I just wonder if that's the reason why, when Trump started his 'Liberation Day' trade war, the EU was uncharacteristically emollient to America compared to China, which immediately slapped on retaliatory tariffs.”
Hunt also described a “cloak and dagger meeting” he had while foreign secretary with the late Oleg Gordievski, who he called “probably the greatest spy of the Cold War.”
“He was briefly KGB station chief in London,” Hunt said, “and he was spying for us during that period, and I went to meet him, and the thing he said to me which really stuck in my mind, was this thing that the only thing that Putin respects is strength.
“So I think from our point of view, we absolutely do need to show that we're serious about our military capabilities, and we don't tempt him to think, ‘Maybe I could make a play for Estonia while NATO is in chaos.’”
Hunt also described consultations with Henry Kissinger, in which the late US Secretary of State and National Security Adviser warned of a scenario very like the one Hunt said could lead to “technical” world war.
“Kissinger said to me that when Ukraine was invaded, some very senior people in the Communist Party leadership in China thought the West was trying to provoke an invasion of Taiwan,” Hunt said, “… because they thought we wanted to sanction China like we were sanctioning Russia.”
That, Hunt said, was “absolute nonsense.”
“But Russia is the worst for conspiracy theories. I mean, Putin, I think there is a side to him that thinks that … the West is out to get him, and attack is the best form of defense. And so I think you have to balance ramping up your strength with enough dialogue to make sure you don't have misunderstandings that lead to war.”