'Turmoil in Congress' shows the GOP may be 'breaking up in real time': historian

When Ronald Reagan ran for governor of California in 1966, he humorously said that his "the 11th Commandment" was "thou shalt not speak ill of any fellow Republican."

In contrast, House Republicans who voted against making Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) speaker were not only berated, pressured, insulted and bullied by Jordan's supporters — some of them even received death threats, including Rep. Ken Buck (R-Colorado) and Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R-Iowa).

Historian/author Thomas J. Balcerski, in an op-ed published by CNN on October 24, examines the chaos and bitter divisions that have plagued the Republican House majority. Looking back on U.S. history, Balcerski argues that the GOP of 2023 may be experiencing "political realignment."

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"Once again, this House of Representatives is making history: It was the first to use a motion to vacate the speakership in 100 years, and now, it has become the first Congress to need two speaker elections with multiple ballots," Balcerski explains. "With so much turmoil in Congress, I have been asked by my students and the general public nearly every day: What comes next?"

Balcerski continues, "As before, I think that history may provide some guidance, especially the study of political parties in the United States. To that end, let me introduce two more concepts from the annals of American history: political realignment and deadlocked conventions."

The historian goes on to cite some examples of "political realignment" that occurred in the past.

"The Republican Party split in 1912 when Theodore Roosevelt led a 'Bull Moose' insurgency against Republican William Howard Taft; the result was the election of Democrat Woodrow Wilson," Balcerski explains. "The 1924 Democratic Party famously went through 103 ballots before agreeing on a compromise candidate, John W. Davis of West Virginia. In 1968, the pro- and anti-war Vietnam War factions in the Democratic Party ruptured over the selection of Hubert H. Humphrey as its nominee, leading to the election of Republican Richard Nixon in the fall."

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The "intraparty animosity" in the GOP, according to Balcerski, "may well mean that we are witnessing the GOP break up in real time."

The historian argues, "How does today's House Republican conference fit these patterns of disfunction? For one, the viciousness of the arguments within the GOP conference and the threats to members reveal a party in disarray…. A failure to reach a majority consensus signals the doom of an American political party."