'Cataclysmic year for GOP' may set stage for Dems to steal 'untouchable' MAGA seat: report

Rep. Jeff Van Drew (R-NJ), the former Democrat-turned-Trump loyalist, may finally be vulnerable. New Jersey Republican leadership is growing alarmed that Donald Trump's collapsing approval ratings could cost the party what was supposed to be a safe House seat for the party.

According to Politico's Matt Friedman, Van Drew has long been considered "untouchable" — but Trump's plummeting popularity, combined with sharp Democratic gains in special elections nationwide and an unpopular artificial intelligence data center in his district, is changing the political calculus.

"Even Van Drew's race is going to be competitive," said Chris Venis, a New Jersey Republican who just launched a super PAC called the National Policy Action Committee to boost Van Drew's reelection. "This year even R-leaning districts must be prepared."

The math shows how dire the situation has become. Van Drew's 2nd District in South Jersey voted for Trump in 2024 by almost 13 points — deep MAGA territory. Van Drew himself won by 17 points. For Democrats to flip such a district would require a "cataclysmic year for Republicans."

But 2026 may be shaping up to be exactly that, the report states. Special elections across the country are showing Democratic swings that match or exceed Van Drew's margin of victory. In Georgia's special election to replace Marjorie Taylor Greene in a deeply Republican district, Republican Clay Fuller beat Democrat Shawn Harris by just 12 points — a stunning 17-point swing toward Democrats from Greene's 2024 performance.

Meanwhile, New Jersey itself is trending Democratic. Gov. Mikie Sherrill won reelection in a landslide in 2025, and Trump lost the state to Kamala Harris by just 6 points — exceptionally close for heavily Democratic New Jersey.

Democrats are mobilizing aggressively. Four candidates — Tim Alexander, Zack Mullock, Terri Reese, and Bayly Winder — are competing in the district's June primary to challenge Van Drew.

Tim Alexander, who lost to Van Drew by 19 points in 2022, believes this cycle is fundamentally different.

"The situation we're in as a nation is significantly different in the concerns that people have with the management of our country and those who support the president like Van Drew," Alexander said.