Venezuela at a crossroads: democracy or dictatorship

Venezuela is at a crossroads, with the government of strongman Nicolas Maduro doubling down on his disputed reelection victory and the opposition vowing to resist "to the end."

The choice, say analysts, is between entrenching authoritarianism or democratic change.

"The conditions exist for almost anything to happen," political analyst Benigno Alarcon of Venezuela's Andres Bello Catholic University told AFP.

With the government unlikely to budge, the outcome depends largely on the path chosen by the opposition and the depth of the international support it can muster, he added.

Within hours of the July 28 elections, Venezuela's CNE electoral council proclaimed Maduro the winner with 52 percent of votes cast but without providing a detailed breakdown of the results.

The opposition says results from polling stations show that its candidate Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia, a 74-year-old retired diplomat, defeated Maduro by a wide margin.

Three weeks later, with 25 deaths, dozens of injuries and more than 2,400 arrested in spontaneous anti-Maduro protests in the 48 hours following the vote, nothing has changed.

These are the avenues that could yield an outcome, one way or another:

- Protest -

The opposition has vowed it will "not leave the streets" and to "fight to the end" as one way to maintain pressure, though there have not been sustained demonstrations.

A mass rally in Caracas last Saturday attracted thousands, but was smaller than many had expected.

"There is repression, fear, intimidation," explained Edward Rodriguez, a political consultant for the opposition, which has seen many members and supporters jailed by the regime.

Katiuska Camargo, a social activist in the capital's low-income Petare neighborhood, said Maduro enforcers have been successful at installing a sense of terror in would-be protesters.

"No one wants to die in the streets," she told AFP.

Alarcon said mass mobilization could also work against the opposition if it leads to violence, possibly damaging its claim to the moral high ground.

- Institutions -

Institutions seem an unlikely help to the opposition, with the CNE electoral council and Supreme Court (TSJ) stacked in favor of Maduro.

The president had asked the TSJ to certify the CNE's election results -- a ruling the opposition has already said would be null given the body's perceived partiality.

Francisco Rodriguez, a legal academic who accepts Maduro's claim to victory, said the TSJ would have been the right place for the opposition to submit evidence of fraud.

The court had invited leaders of the opposition to a certification hearing, but Gonzalez Urrutia declined to come out of hiding to attend even as Maduro was calling for his arrest.

- External pressure -

The United States, European Union, several Latin American countries and multilateral bodies have refused to recognize Maduro's victory claim without seeing the detailed results.

Experts say what happens next depends a lot on whether the international community can exert sufficient pressure on Maduro -- who managed to cling to power despite sanctions that followed his 2018 re-election which was also dismissed as a sham by dozens of countries.

Countries like the United States and Colombia have an added incentive this time, with heightened fears of a new migratory wave to add to the nearly eight million Venezuelans to have left in recent years as the economy collapsed.

Maduro has ruled out negotiating with the opposition, while Gonzalez Urrutia has urged the incumbent to "step aside" and make way for a transition.

Brazil and Colombia have raised the possibility of fresh elections -- a scenario rejected by both sides in Venezuela.

Rodriguez said Maduro would be keen for Venezuela to return to a semblance of "normality," which would include an end to crippling sanctions on its oil industry.

The United States, too, wants production to improve in the country with the world's biggest crude reserves at a time of pressure on international oil prices.

Maduro, said Rodriguez, would likely "try to apply a policy similar to that of 2019-2023 to wear out" opposition to his continued rule.

And he could pursue a policy of "greater repression" to strengthen his hand in negotiations with parties keen to see it stop.