‘Absolutely horrifying drop’ in early returns for GOP rep shocks: ‘Buckle your seatbelts’

The early results of Tuesday's consequential midterm elections shocked one political analyst.

Lakshya Jain, who runs political data and polling for The Argument, posted on X that the early voting results in Indiana's 5th Congressional District were a clear sign that a "massive wave is real." At the time Jain posted, incumbent Rep. Victoria Spartz (R-IN), who won the district by 11 points in 2024, was losing the election by 28 points.

"That is an absolutely horrifying drop for Victoria Spartz," Jain posted. "She should still win this race, and you wouldn't expect an upset yet. But this is what you'd expect to see if a massive wave is real."

Jain became even more concerned as more results trickled in.

"Spartz is in real trouble here," Jain posted. "At 6:21 PM Eastern, this is now consistent with a tossup race based [on] the early ballots, and tells you that this probably is a really, really blue year. You don't get this type of drop in a blue ripple or even a modest wave. Buckle your seatbelts."

Jain's commentary came on the heels of multiple exit polls that showed voters were unhappy with President Donald Trump's policies. One CNN poll showed 57% of Americans thought Trump's immigration policies had gone too far. Another poll found more than 60% of people felt the economy is worse today than it was two years ago.

Republicans seemed aware that the midterms could shake out in Democrats' favor when they began a state-level redistricting scheme earlier this year. Indiana was one state with a GOP-controlled legislature that resisted the Trump administration's calls to change their election map, a move that at least one analyst thinks the party may come to regret.

"I have a feeling some Indiana Republicans are going to be happy that they didn't redistrict this year," Sean Trende, senior elections analyst at Real Clear Politics, posted on X.