A key elections analyst in Virginia has flagged patterns in early voting data that reveal Republicans are on track for yet another body blow in the commonwealth.
Months after Democrats swept every statewide office and grew their majorities in the Virginia General Assembly, voters are headed to the polls to decide on a ballot question that lets Democrats move forward with an aggressive mid-decade redistricting that will add four Democratic-leaning seats, potentially leaving Republicans with just one out of 11 of the state's districts. Just like the vote in California, Democrats have framed this as retaliation for the Trump-ordered Republican gerrymanders in Texas, North Carolina, and Missouri.
And according to Chaz Nuttycombe of State Navigate, early voting trends suggest it's well on its way to passing.
"Black voters are coming out in DROVES for this amendment now," he wrote. "Unless the no campaign has successfully persuaded them to vote no (very unlikely), we are on track to see the 10-1 map pass."
Republicans have done everything in their power to try to stop the amendment, from an aggressive opposition campaign to forum-shopping in state courts for right-wing judges to block the vote, which was later reversed by the state Supreme Court.
Meanwhile, the GOP has struggled to get any additional states under its control to redistrict, with officials in Kansas, New Hampshire, and Indiana flatly refusing to move forward. Florida Republicans are set to debate redistricting soon, but are reportedly spooked by recent special election losses and believe too aggressive a redraw could backfire.