'Now this is interesting': Data guru spots advantage that would put Dems in 'catbird seat'

CNN's Harry Enten highlighted a potential advantage that could help Democrats regain the House majority in this fall's midterm elections.

Voters will decide on a contentious redistricting measure in Virginia that would redraw the state's congressional map to give Democrats an advantage in 10 of its 11 seats, and Enten examined how Tuesday's election results would impact the November contest.

"It allstarted back in Texas lastsummer, if I do recall," Enten said. "It feelslike years ago, but it was lessthan a year ago, and you knowwhat? It's just been Democratsand Republicans going back andforth. It started in Texas, thenit went to California. You had Ohio, you had Utah. We've had North Carolina recently, but sofar, the grand math is this mostlikely to gain House seats from mid-decade redistrictingcurrently. Look at that, theyall cancel each other out atzero, about zero – neither sidegaining."

"But if this Virginiameasure does, in fact, passtonight, Democrats would be inthe catbird seat, in thedriver's seat," he added. "They would havea three-to-four seat advantage becauseof redistricting. But this isnot some mammoth switcheroo interms of talking, you know, 10,20 seats. What we're reallytalking about is moving thatball just a little bit, and Democrats move it just a littlebit to the other side of thefield if in fact that measurepasses tonight."

That seemingly small advantage could be just enough to tip control of the House of Representatives, according to Enten.

"Now this isinteresting," he said. "You know, I saidit's just moving the balljust a little bit down thefield, but right now inpolitics, it's all justabout getting the ball just alittle bit more down the field, right, because what does a three-seat gain mean? I mean, justlook at the House seat math. Themargin of the GOP majority inthe House post the 2024elections was essentially twoseats. That is how many seats they could lose before, in fact,losing on a party-line vote. Soif now all of a sudden we'retalking about in Virginia thatthis measure passes tonight,well, the Dems likely gain frompost, the redistrictingpost."

"Virginia would in fact bethree seats plus," Enten added. "So this alonewould eliminate that Republicanmajority in the House, and thatis why there's been just allthis money thrown into thisrace, because three or four seats couldmean the entire ballgame interms of who controls the U.S. House of Representatives."

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