Voters fleeing Trump and the Republican Party since BLM protests began: polling analyst

According to CNN polling analysts Harry Enten, the recent killings of African-Americans at the hands of police -- and the subsequent Black Lives Matter protests -- appears to be having a far-reaching effect on the fortunes of Republican candidates looking at the November election.

Using a poll showing Sen. Joni Ernst (R-IA) now in a virtual tie with her Democratic opponent Theresa Greenfield -- when the margin of error is taken into account -- as a jumping-off point, the analyst said it reflects a broader trend across the country.

"While it's still early and things could change, this Iowa poll, conducted by Selzer & Co., is the latest state survey for either the race for the White House or Senate to show a clear shift toward Democrats since protests began nationwide following the death of George Floyd at the hands of a white police officer," Enten wrote before suggesting, "These state polls in aggregate suggest that the movement toward former Vice President Joe Biden seen in the national polls is funneling down to the state level."

Pointing out that President Donald Trump is trailing badly in many of the key battleground states, the analyst wrote that the president whose popularity has been in freefall since he criticized the protests and tweeted, "when the looting starts, the shooting starts," is dragging GOP candidates down with him.

"Focusing on the Senate specifically, the limited data we have at this point is consistent with the idea that Republican candidates will not be able to hide from Trump's unpopularity. If he continues to have an approval rating in the low 40s nationally, there is a good chance that it will cost the Republicans control of the Senate," Enten wrote before pointing out that Ernst's position in the polls has become much more precarious in the just the last few weeks.

"We see the same movement in Arizona. Democrat Mark Kelly was a favorite over Republican Sen. Martha McSally in early May, but his lead in the average poll was 6 points. A Fox News poll that was published in June had Kelly up by 13 points -- a doubling of his advantage from earlier this year. Any of these polls, individually, could be outliers. Not all of them are, however," he wrote before adding the GOP has "their work cut out for them" prior to November.

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