Michigan, Oregon and upstate New York are the top places a civil war could break out: report

A report from BusinessInsider speculates the reason that Michigan, Oregon and upstate New York will be the place that civil war breaks out if it does happen in the future.

According to the report, the possibility that a civil war is coming is increasing as the far-right grows increasingly angry about their lessening power over the country. The first Jan. 6 trial began this month with many more to come. The trial also began for the men who attempted to kidnap and assassinate Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer.

"The Boogaloo believes the country is broken, that politicians on both sides are at fault and should be targeted and attacked," explained Assistant US Attorney Jonathan Roth. "They believe a second civil war is coming, and they are looking forward to that civil war."

Since the Justice Department began charging domestic terrorists, their caseload has grown significantly. All the while, the idea of a civil war was pooh-poohed. Insider spoke with experts of domestic terrorism and the civil war to ask about whether a clash is imminent and where.

While some said that "everywhere" is possible, three places came up repeatedly where the far right-wing is clashing with the rest of the community.

Because Michigan is so close to the international border there has long been a community of right-wing militarism, said How Civil War Starts author Barbara Walter in an interview with Insider.

"Today, civil wars are waged primarily by different ethnic and religious groups, by guerrilla soldiers and militias, who often target civilians. The unrest in Michigan, if you look closely, features these very elements," she said.

These militias have been around for decades but after the Oklahoma City bombing in 1995, the government cracked down on right-wing extremism connected to bomber Timothy McVeigh.

Historian JoEllen Vinyard speculated that the extremism in Michigan could be attributed to globalization and the downfall of manufacturing, which is what Donald Trump used when he ran for office.

"There are many people who felt they were ignored, left behind by the American dream, which they'd worked so hard to believe in, but it didn't come true for them," she told Insider. "So they look for people to blame. I think Trump unleashed a lot of feelings that were already there. He's not responsible for them. But he brought them all to the surface and made them legitimate."

In upstate New York far-right extremists in rural areas are clashing with traditional blue cities. Much of it is race-based.

"People generally are mistaken when they believe that white supremacy and far-right militancy is a Southern thing," said former undercover FBI agent Michael German. "In fact, it is and always has been broadly spread throughout the nation."

The report recalled a 2019 incident where a cache of weapons was found ready to go after an enclave of Muslim families who moved to the Catskills in the 1980s. The right-wing message board 4chan and Infowars invented a conspiracy theory that the people there lived under Islamic law and were training jihadis.

"Membership in the Oath Keepers consists largely of military and law-enforcement personnel, and that overlap is prominent in the Hudson Valley," said Insider. "A former sheriff of Greene County, Greg Seeley, received an award from the Oath Keepers in 2017, and Lewis County Sheriff Mike Carpinelli, who is running for governor, has also been honored by the group."

In eastern Oregon, conservatives are already trying to secede from the state and join Idaho. They're being led by anti-government activist Ammon Bundy, who was part of a Nevada standoff with the US Government after his father refused to pay millions to graze his cattle on federal lands. Bundy and his friends then took over the Malheur National Wildlife Refuge saying the land belonged to the state.

The secessionist movement is also popular in Texas. Such a movement was the start of the Civil War of the 1800s. But in eastern Oregon, the group is organized and active.

The original Civil War, of course, began with secessionism — and eastern Oregon is where the movement is most active, organized, and pronounced. "This might be a solution to some of the discontent that is out there," Mike McCarter, a retired gun-club owner who leads the group Move Oregon's Border, told me. He stressed that his group's plan was intended to be a peaceful solution to what he considered to be irreconcilable political differences with Portland. But he acknowledged the "possibility" that the country could be on the path to civil war.

"What January 6 did is bring to the surface what the experts had been seeing for years and years and years, out of the public eye," Barbara Walter said. "It made it impossible for most Americans, and our politicians, to ignore this cancer that had been growing within."

Read the full report and interviews about the danger zones at BusinessInsider.