Will Mitch McConnell and Senate Republicans use Feinstein’s passing to grind confirmations to a halt?

The passing of U.S. Senator Dianne Feinstein, a Democrat who served the people of California since 1970 in numerous roles, first at the local level, then as a Senator and Chair of powerful Committees, raises many questions about the future, including: What will Republicans, and especially Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, do? Will Democrats be able to replace her on the Senate's powerful Judiciary Committee and Rules Committee?

Senator Feinstein's role on the Judiciary Committee for much of this year has been in the news, largely due to her ill health. Some have said the narrow Democratic majority in the Senate and on the Judiciary Committee prevented her from resigning.

There are more Republicans in the Senate (49) than Democrats (48, until Feinstein's passing), but the three independents who generally vote with Democrats gave them a 51 vote "majority," with the Senate President, Vice President Kamala Harris, casting the tie-breaking vote 31 times, as of July. Her 31st tie-breaking vote is matched only by one other Vice President, who also cast a total of 31 tie-breaking votes.

What happens now?

Does President Biden's historic pace of appointing judges – more than the last three presidents at this point in their tenure, end, at least until 2025? As of July, President Biden has nominated and had confirmed more Black women judges (13) than all other U.S. President combined, and placed on the federal bench 44 Black judges in total. Does that also grind to a halt? He has placed on the federal bench at least 27 Hispanic judges. Earlier this year President Biden nominated two more Hispanic women judges. UC Santa Barbara's The American Presidency Project noted, "if both are confirmed, President Biden will have confirmed more Latina circuit judges than any President in history." It also noted, Biden "has nominated 27 AA and NHPI individuals to federal judgeships and 20 have been confirmed. This includes six AA and NHPI circuit court judges."

And what happens if a U.S. Supreme Court Justice dies or retires?

In April, PBS NewsHour reported, "Republicans blocked a Democratic request to temporarily replace California Sen. Dianne Feinstein on the Senate Judiciary Committee Tuesday, leaving Democrats with few options for moving some of President Joe Biden’s stalled judicial nominees."

"South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham, the top Republican on the Senate Judiciary Committee, objected to a resolution offered by Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer that would have allowed another senator to take Feinstein’s place on the panel while the Democrat recuperates from a case of shingles. Republicans have argued that Democrats only want a stand-in to push through the most partisan judges, noting that many of Biden’s nominees have bipartisan support and can move to the Senate floor for a vote."

Minority Leader McConnell also made clear his objections at the time.

“'Let’s be clear,' said McConnell in remarks on the Senate floor. 'Senate Republicans will not take part in sidelining a temporarily absent colleague off a committee just so Democrats can force through their very worst nominees.'"

Given McConnell's history, including refusing to even allow then-President Barack Obama's nominee to the U.S. Supreme Court to get a confirmation hearing, much less an up-or-down vote, it might seem unlikely he will allow Senator Feinstein to be replaced on any Committee.

But, NewsHour's April reporting may now give Democrats some hope.

"If Feinstein were to resign immediately, the process would be much easier for Democrats, since California Gov. Gavin Newsom would appoint a replacement. The Senate regularly approves committee assignments for new senators after their predecessors have resigned or died. But a temporary replacement due to illness is a rare, if not unprecedented, request."

Sen. Feinstein also served on several powerful Committees, including Intelligence, Appropriations, and especially the Rules Committee.

Will Republicans allow Senator Feinstein's replacement to serve on Judiciary, and the other Committees as well?

California's Democratic Governor Gavin Newsom "must now appoint someone to the U.S. Senate ahead of next year’s election. He has long said he would appoint a Black woman if Feinstein did not finish her term, but he recently specified on 'Meet the Press' that he would do so as an 'interim appointment,'" The San Francisco Chronicle reported Friday. "Only one of the top three candidates to replace Feinstein, Rep. Barbara Lee of Oakland, is a Black woman. Polls have shown Lee trailing two opponents, Reps. Katie Porter, D-Irvine, and Adam Schiff, D-Burbank."

"Republicans have said they would block Democrats from replacing Feinstein on the committee, which must approve President Biden’s judicial nominees," The Chronicle added. "Newsom has said that without her, Democrats — losing their committee majority — might not be able to get any more federal judges through Congress this term."

“'I have to remind my friends and progressive colleagues,' Newsom told reporters last month, 'if she does resign and the governor, I guess me, appoints someone, we may not get another federal judge out of the Judiciary Committee.'”

Some experts disagree with "conventional wisdom."

"The claim that Republicans can and will block DiFi's [Senator Feinstein's] replacement on the Senate Judiciary Committee was pulled out of thin air by Democrats seeking a pretext to defend her refusal to retire. It is almost certainly false, and it's irresponsible to promote this claim as a certainty," Slate's Mark Joseph Stern, who writes about the courts and the law, said Friday.

"Democrats confirmed nearly 100 Biden judges with an evenly divided SJC [Senate Judiciary Committee]," Stern adds. "It just takes somewhat longer."

Politico on Friday reported, "Democrats will need 60 votes to appoint a senator to fill Feinstein’s role on the Judiciary panel, meaning at least 10 Republicans would need to vote in favor of filling Democrats’ majority on the panel, assuming they move to do so before someone is appointed to the California Senate seat."

"Senators are typically assigned to committees by unanimous consent, but such orders are subject to debate and can be filibustered. Republican senators could slow, or stop, Democrats from filling the Judiciary roster," Politico added. "The panel, under Democratic control, has been advancing scores of judicial nominations that Republicans object to. Leaving the panel short one Democratic vote would hamper the majority’s steady confirmation of President Joe Biden’s nominees."

Back in June, amid clamor from some progressives for Sen. Feinstein to step down, U.S. Senator Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI) warned, "The fact is simple: if Senator Feinstein resigns, Mitch McConnell gets to decide whether Democrats have a Senate Judiciary majority."