The Wall Street Journal's editorial board has a warning for President Donald Trump: his trade war with Canada is sinking Republicans in Michigan, and it could help cost the party Congress.
In a Thursday editorial titled "Tariffs Are Hurting the GOP in Michigan," the board opened by mocking the party's old promise on tariffs. "Remember when tariffs were supposed to be the killer issue for Republicans, the path to the hearts of the working class and a durable majority?" it asked. "That isn't working."
The trigger was Republican Senate candidate Mike Rogers calling for a ceasefire in what the board called Trump's "senseless trade war with Canada." On the state of the race, the board wrote: "Michigan once looked to be a GOP pickup opportunity, and it still could be. But most polls show far-left Democrat Abdul El-Sayed with a growing lead, in no small part because of Mr. Trump's trade escalation against Canada." The board said the contest was tied until mid-August, the point when Trump's 50 percent duty on $20 billion of Canadian goods kicked in.
El-Sayed, the board noted, is "no free trader," but he has gone after Rogers on the tariffs, correctly judging them unpopular in Michigan. Even United Auto Workers President Shawn Fain, historically a tariff supporter, has criticized them. On Wednesday, after long avoiding the topic, Rogers released an ad breaking with Trump on the issue: "Here in Michigan we know that Canada is not our enemy. We need to end this tariff war — now."
The board's verdict: "He's right."
Trump, however, keeps escalating. After Canada hit back, he threatened 50% tariffs on Canadian vehicles, auto parts and steel, and last week banned Canadian alcohol and motorcycle imports. The board added, "Mr. El-Sayed sends his thanks and best wishes."
The stakes for Michigan are large. The board noted Canada sends roughly $40 billion in goods to the state each year, about half of it vehicles and parts, with small businesses hit hardest because they can't absorb the costs. The Michigan Smart Trade Alliance puts the tariff burden on state families at $27.2 billion since January 2025, around $6,658 per household. Anderson Economic Group estimated last year's auto tariffs added roughly $1,600 to every vehicle assembled in the U.S., cutting into automaker margins and, in turn, workers' profit-sharing bonuses. General Motors has projected a tariff hit of $2.5 billion to $3.5 billion this year, which the board said could cost each worker about $3,500 in bonuses.
"Didn't Mr. Trump say his tariffs would help manufacturing workers in places like Michigan?" the board asked. "Instead, they are hurting Republicans in swing districts and states around the country."
It pointed to New York's 17th District, where Democrat Cait Conley says tariffs have "jacked up prices" for the average Hudson Valley household by $4,200. If Republicans lose Congress, the board concluded, Trump "and his ham-handed border taxes will deserve much of the blame."