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The Republican Party's internal warfare over the DHS shutdown has exposed a stunning divide between Senate and House leadership, with Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) cutting a deal that left House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) completely out of the loop — and fuming.

According to MS NOW's Mychael Schnell, Thune won the political war, but both leaders emerged from the funding battle bruised and bloodied, with Donald Trump wielding his unpredictable power to destabilize the process at will.

Early last Friday morning, the Senate unanimously backed a compromise to fund most of DHS while leaving the most contentious provisions for a future reconciliation bill. It appeared to be a workable solution. At 2:41 a.m., Thune sounded cautiously optimistic about Trump's support.

Then everything fell apart.

Minutes after the Senate passed its bill, Johnson called Trump to say his House conference would reject the deal. Later that morning, Johnson told his members that Thune had cut them out entirely.

"They cut off communications with us last night," Johnson said on the Friday conference call. "The Senate did this without informing me or even all of their members or the White House. No one was involved."

But Thune's account contradicted Johnson's narrative. The Senate leader said he had texted with Johnson overnight, going "back and forth a little bit" about the deal. Multiple sources confirmed Thune had given Johnson advance notice, suggesting Thune was actually shocked by Johnson's sudden opposition — not the other way around.

House Republicans were livid about the method of notification. One GOP member, speaking anonymously, complained that Thune had texted Johnson instead of calling about a deal of such magnitude.

"When you do something like that, you don't f------ text. You pick up the phone and call," the Republican said.

The clash exposes fundamentally different political realities facing the two leaders. Thune operates in the Senate, where the 60-vote threshold forces bipartisan compromise and gives him flexibility to cut deals. Johnson commands a paper-thin House majority under constant threat of revolt — with hard-liners wielding the motion to vacate as a weapon that could cost him his job.

"There are different dynamics," one Senate Republican explained. "Johnson has to contend more with his right flank. Thune has to deal with senators in the middle. They're playing to different bases."

But both leaders now face an unpredictable third force: a president whose shifting positions can upend the entire process overnight, leaving everyone scrambling.

There are growing concerns among liberal advocacy groups that Donald Trump is going to be afforded a chance to put two more of his appointees on the Supreme Court, maintaining a 6-3 conservative majority and, more importantly, a 5-4 Trump majority for decades to come.

Trump has already installed three justices — Neil Gorsuch (2017), Brett Kavanaugh (2018) and Amy Coney Barrett (2020). Now, progressive groups are preparing for the distinct possibility that Justices Clarence Thomas, 77, and Samuel Alito, 76, could step down during Trump's term, giving him the opportunity to reshape the court to a radical degree.

Demand Justice, a leading progressive legal advocacy group, is launching a multimillion-dollar preemptive campaign to oppose potential Trump Supreme Court nominees before vacancies even occur. The project will cost $3 million initially, with an additional $15 million allocated if Trump actually nominates replacements for Thomas or Alito.

Josh Orton, president of Demand Justice, invoked the cautionary tale of Ruth Bader Ginsburg to explain the stakes to the New York Times.

"If you think that Trump is willing to leave two of the three justices he thinks are most loyal on the court in their 80s past when he leaves office, you are not paying attention," Orton said. "There is no way that Donald Trump and Clarence Thomas and Samuel Alito would ever commit the fundamental miscalculation about power that we saw from Ruth Bader Ginsburg and Barack Obama and we as a movement."

Ginsburg infamously refused to retire during the Obama presidency despite pressure from allies who warned of her mortality. She died during Trump's first term, and was replaced by the far more conservative Amy Coney Barrett — a decision progressives view as the original sin of judicial miscalculation.

Orton's research identifies three categories of potential Trump Supreme Court nominees: conservative judges from lower courts, political allies and elected officials, and what he described as committed Trump loyalists with a "vulgar equivalent for 's---- you'" — essentially ideological warriors willing to do Trump's bidding.

Blocking a Trump Supreme Court nominee would require extraordinary political conditions. If all Senate Democrats opposed a nominee, four Republican senators would need to defect to block confirmation. Orton believes as many as six Republican senators could vote against Trump under the right political conditions, though such unanimity is unlikely.

The political landscape could shift dramatically if Democrats flip at least four Republican-held Senate seats in November, gaining control of the chamber. That outcome would make confirming Trump nominees substantially more difficult — though Trump could still push nominations through before any Democratic administration takes over.

Ezra Levin, co-executive director of Indivisible, a liberal partner organization in the Demand Justice effort, framed the challenge starkly.

"If Trump is handed another Supreme Court vacancy, we must be clear-eyed and ready to make it an uphill battle. This will be a defining political battle, and we intend to make sure the stakes are clear to everyone."