2026 Midterm Elections

Donald Trump is sitting on a financial arsenal that could reshape the midterm elections — but Republican leadership is terrified he won't actually spend it.

According to Axios's Alex Isenstadt, Trump's operation controls more than half a billion dollars spread across various PACs and nonprofits. $300 million sits in the pro-Trump MAGA Inc. super PAC, with several hundred million more in Securing American Greatness, an allied nonprofit that doesn't have to disclose its donors.

The money exists. The question is whether Trump will deploy it.

Top Republicans are openly worried that Trump, notoriously protective of his cash, might simply hoard it. Some fear he'll keep the money entirely or wait until late in the campaign to spend — exactly what happened in 2022, when Trump amassed massive cash reserves but deployed little of it early.

Republican strategists argue that Trump's reluctance to spend aggressively in 2022 cost the party dearly. Had he invested earlier and more forcefully, they contend, Democrats wouldn't have performed as well as they did.

The stakes are enormous. Trump is cratering in the polls, the GOP faces potential loss of the House majority, and Republican lawmakers are imperiled by his horrific approval ratings. Yet Trump sees a strategic incentive to fight: he's desperate to prevent a Democratic takeover of the House, which he believes would trigger his third impeachment.

But Trump's motivations are unpredictable, and his relationship with money is notoriously volatile. "Plans can change on a whim," and his personal interest in controlling spending decisions could override party interests.

Some Republicans argue that money alone won't solve the fundamental problem: voter fury over the economy. "All the TV ads in the world won't be able to change how voters feel about the economy, the issue that surveys indicate is the most likely to swing the election."

Former senior Trump adviser Steve Bannon pointed to democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani's surprise win in last year's New York City mayoral race as proof that traditional political spending has limits.

"Money has lost its edge," Bannon said. "What makes the difference is 'authenticity, urgency, energy [and] grassroots commitment.'"

For GOP leaders hoping Trump's billions will salvage the midterms, that message offers little comfort.

With the possibility of Republicans losing majority control of the House already a foregone conclusion, Senate Republicans have announced plans to spend over $342 million to forestall the same fate in their chamber.

The spending list tells the story: Republicans are being forced to defend seats in states where they have traditionally been favored to win by large margins.

According to Politico's Finya Swi, the super PAC's initial ad reservation stretches deep into traditionally Republican territory, a sign that Democrats are making unexpected inroads.

Ohio is receiving the largest investment: $79 million to defend the seat previously held by Vice President JD Vance. Sen. Jon Husted (R-OH), who replaced Vance, will likely face former Sen. Sherrod Brown — a formidable challenger who narrowly lost to Sen. Bernie Moreno in 2024.

North Carolina is the second-largest target at $71 million. Former Republican National Committee chair Michael Whatley is facing off against popular Democratic former Gov. Roy Cooper in what's expected to be "the most expensive race," according to reports to The New York Times.

The super PAC also allocated $42 million previously in January to help reelect Sen. Susan Collins in Maine — another traditionally Republican state now viewed as competitive.

The spending list also includes Alaska and Iowa, suggesting the GOP super PAC is bracing for "significant political headwinds in the midterms."

One notable omission reveals internal GOP anxiety: Texas is conspicuously absent from the spending list. Sen. John Cornyn, backed by the Senate Leadership Fund, faces Attorney General Ken Paxton in a May primary runoff. National Republicans have privately feared that a Paxton candidacy could put the seat — traditionally one of the safest Republican seats in the nation — in actual play.

The massive spending operation reportedly underscores a harsh reality: House control appears lost, and the Senate majority is now under serious threat.

The Republican Party's dysfunction in Georgia is turning what should have been a winnable Senate seat into a likely Democratic victory. The culprit: Donald Trump and Gov. Brian Kemp can't get along, leaving the GOP field fractured and Sen. Jon Ossoff (D) sitting pretty.

According to Politico, Republicans expected to flip this Senate seat and strengthen their grip on the chamber. Instead, they're watching Ossoff cruise toward re-election with $24 million in the bank, a massive name-ID advantage, and zero Democratic competition in his primary.

Meanwhile, the GOP is descending into chaos. The May 19 primary will almost certainly trigger an expensive, brutal mid-June runoff as Republicans batter each other over the nomination.

Rep. Mike Collins (R-GA), a Trump ally, leads in polling. Rep. Buddy Carter and Kemp-endorsed former football coach Derek Dooley are fighting for second. But a large share of voters remain undecided, revealing how chaotic the race truly is.

"If Ossoff could write a playbook for how he wants this primary to go, this is exactly it," said one GOP operative. "Georgia is like a 'red-headed stepchild' not getting any attention from Washington."

The collapse traces directly to GOP incompetence. Republicans failed to recruit a strong candidate or unify the field. The National Republican Senatorial Committee's recruitment efforts were lackluster. But most damaging: Trump and Kemp refuse to agree on a candidate, forcing an expensive primary that bleeds the eventual nominee's resources before facing Ossoff.

GOP strategists are already pointing fingers. "It's a mess that could have been much less messy if they had figured this out six months ago," said one strategist. "Everybody's resigned to this going to May and then a June runoff and then pick up the pieces after that."

Ryan Mahoney, a GOP strategist, highlighted the stark disparity in positioning.

"Jon Ossoff has $24 million. Jon Ossoff is on TV all of the time, carefully articulating his positions, grilling Tulsi Gabbard — really being methodical. He has tons of resources — great name ID, a lot of exposure — while the Republicans are fighting against each other, trying to see who can break out and ultimately be the nominee. He's just in a great position."

The Georgia race is now a microcosm of the GOP's broader midterm problem: voters are souring on Trump's agenda, Democrats are competitive in red states, and Republicans are too busy fighting each other to mount an effective offense.