2026 Midterm Elections

Donald Trump’s attempt to rid himself of Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-LA) for being a thorn in his side is not going according to plan, Politico is reporting.

Trump's endorsement has failed to deliver the knockout punch he expected after he endorsed Rep. Julia Letlow (R-LA). "The Trump endorsement has not had a close-out move. Cassidy was ready for her," said GOP state Rep. Mike Bayham. "They defined her before she introduced herself."

Letlow is underwater on every metric. She's been massively outspent by Cassidy on the airwaves, has low name ID compared to her opponents, and faces State Treasurer John Fleming — another candidate with MAGA appeal and his own political network. Running her first statewide campaign under a compressed timeline, she's unable to capitalize on Trump's endorsement or rally the base behind her.

Mark Harris, a Cassidy aide, highlighted the strategic failure: "We're in the middle of a dogfight. Everyone's expectation is that she would shoot to a large lead and that we'd all be running from behind. But frankly I think they just weren't ready for this race."

Letlow's campaign strategy has been catastrophically flawed. Her ads have almost exclusively focused on her Trump endorsement rather than attacking Cassidy or defining herself to voters. Meanwhile, Cassidy has gone hard after her on the airwaves.

Letlow's other major vulnerability: geography. She hails from a rural district in north Louisiana far from the population centers of New Orleans and Baton Rouge — a region culturally aligned with the Deep South and vastly different from the Catholic, Cajun, and Creole influence dominating southern Louisiana.

"People haven't met her. She's almost invisible as a candidate," said East Baton Rouge Parish Chair Woody Jenkins. "When you're just meeting someone new in politics, and you hear all these bad things, you might have a first impression, but you tend to start having second thoughts. And he's just relentless in it."

The race has become a critical test of Trump's power. His approval ratings are at all-time lows, and his ability to remove Republicans who crossed him — like Cassidy's 2021 impeachment conviction vote — is now in serious question.

MAGA Inc. has remained mysteriously silent about whether it will spend money on Letlow for the primary or runoff, suggesting internal doubts about her viability.

Donald Trump is sitting on a financial arsenal that could reshape the midterm elections — but Republican leadership is terrified he won't actually spend it.

According to Axios's Alex Isenstadt, Trump's operation controls more than half a billion dollars spread across various PACs and nonprofits. $300 million sits in the pro-Trump MAGA Inc. super PAC, with several hundred million more in Securing American Greatness, an allied nonprofit that doesn't have to disclose its donors.

The money exists. The question is whether Trump will deploy it.

Top Republicans are openly worried that Trump, notoriously protective of his cash, might simply hoard it. Some fear he'll keep the money entirely or wait until late in the campaign to spend — exactly what happened in 2022, when Trump amassed massive cash reserves but deployed little of it early.

Republican strategists argue that Trump's reluctance to spend aggressively in 2022 cost the party dearly. Had he invested earlier and more forcefully, they contend, Democrats wouldn't have performed as well as they did.

The stakes are enormous. Trump is cratering in the polls, the GOP faces potential loss of the House majority, and Republican lawmakers are imperiled by his horrific approval ratings. Yet Trump sees a strategic incentive to fight: he's desperate to prevent a Democratic takeover of the House, which he believes would trigger his third impeachment.

But Trump's motivations are unpredictable, and his relationship with money is notoriously volatile. "Plans can change on a whim," and his personal interest in controlling spending decisions could override party interests.

Some Republicans argue that money alone won't solve the fundamental problem: voter fury over the economy. "All the TV ads in the world won't be able to change how voters feel about the economy, the issue that surveys indicate is the most likely to swing the election."

Former senior Trump adviser Steve Bannon pointed to democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani's surprise win in last year's New York City mayoral race as proof that traditional political spending has limits.

"Money has lost its edge," Bannon said. "What makes the difference is 'authenticity, urgency, energy [and] grassroots commitment.'"

For GOP leaders hoping Trump's billions will salvage the midterms, that message offers little comfort.

With the possibility of Republicans losing majority control of the House already a foregone conclusion, Senate Republicans have announced plans to spend over $342 million to forestall the same fate in their chamber.

The spending list tells the story: Republicans are being forced to defend seats in states where they have traditionally been favored to win by large margins.

According to Politico's Finya Swi, the super PAC's initial ad reservation stretches deep into traditionally Republican territory, a sign that Democrats are making unexpected inroads.

Ohio is receiving the largest investment: $79 million to defend the seat previously held by Vice President JD Vance. Sen. Jon Husted (R-OH), who replaced Vance, will likely face former Sen. Sherrod Brown — a formidable challenger who narrowly lost to Sen. Bernie Moreno in 2024.

North Carolina is the second-largest target at $71 million. Former Republican National Committee chair Michael Whatley is facing off against popular Democratic former Gov. Roy Cooper in what's expected to be "the most expensive race," according to reports to The New York Times.

The super PAC also allocated $42 million previously in January to help reelect Sen. Susan Collins in Maine — another traditionally Republican state now viewed as competitive.

The spending list also includes Alaska and Iowa, suggesting the GOP super PAC is bracing for "significant political headwinds in the midterms."

One notable omission reveals internal GOP anxiety: Texas is conspicuously absent from the spending list. Sen. John Cornyn, backed by the Senate Leadership Fund, faces Attorney General Ken Paxton in a May primary runoff. National Republicans have privately feared that a Paxton candidacy could put the seat — traditionally one of the safest Republican seats in the nation — in actual play.

The massive spending operation reportedly underscores a harsh reality: House control appears lost, and the Senate majority is now under serious threat.