Trump's midterm 'sabotage' hinges on Mike Johnson passing up a lobbying payday: analyst
Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA), not President Donald Trump, will hold the power to sabotage a narrow midterm outcome, a political analyst warned.
The Atlantic's conservative columnist David Frum, who was previously former President George W. Bush's speechwriter, made the case in a Saturday episode on "The Jim Acosta Show," telling the former CNN White House correspondent that Trump "will need Mike Johnson actively to cooperate" if control of the House comes down to a handful of seats.
Frum argued that Trump's power is "visibly ebbing" as voters feel the pain at the pump. But he cautioned against reading too much into bleak polling for Republicans. He said GOP-leaning voters are less likely to answer pollsters, and he advised adding "a point or two" to the Republican number in any race.
That margin matters, Frum said, because a Democratic blowout would leave Johnson with few options.
"If the networks report on election night that the Democrats have picked up 38 or 42 seats, then I think there's not a lot Mike Johnson can do," Frum said.
A tighter result would be a different story. Frum pointed to a disputed 1984 House race in Indiana that was separated by a sliver of votes and ultimately settled by the chamber itself rather than the courts.
"The Constitution says that Congress, the House of Representatives, is the judge of the qualifications of its own members," Frum said. "So if there's a real controversy over whom to seat, the courts say we won't bail you out. This is a matter for the House of Representatives."
Democrats held the majority at the time and seated their candidate. Johnson would inherit that precedent "if it's real close, if it's eight seats that are at stake, not 38," Frum said.
"The court has not said the president is the judge. It says the House of Representatives, and that means the people who have the majority at the time the decision is made," Frum said. "So in November the Republicans will have the majority, and the question is, is this how Mike Johnson wants to go down? Does he want to have his own Jan. 6? Is that how he wants to be remembered?"
Frum then sketched out a quieter exit for the speaker.
"Or does Mike Johnson say, you know, this is a tough job I've had. I haven't enjoyed it," Frum said. "There's a beautiful lobbying office waiting for me on K Street."
He stressed that the decision would rest with Johnson alone.
"A lot will turn on him because it will be his call, not the president's, whether to sabotage the seating of representatives after the vote in 2026," Frum said.
Acosta agreed that the outcome would come down to the speaker's loyalty.
"We'll see what kind of a true believer Mike Johnson is at that point," Acosta said.