'My goodness gracious!' Data guru floored as Democrats build momentum in key race
CNN's Harry Enten was floored on Sunday as he discussed new polling that shows Democrats have gained momentum in a key Senate race, even after the candidate who won the party's primary dropped out.
Last week, oyster farmer Graham Platner suspended his campaign for the Maine Senate seat against incumbent Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) after multiple allegations of sexual harassment and rape were lodged against him. Platner has described the allegations as "serious," while also claiming that they are false.
Since Platner dropped out, Enten noted that Democrats have a better chance of winning the seat than they did while he was in the race. That appears to buck conventional wisdom that suggested the Democrats would take a big hit from Platner dropping out.
As of July 2, prediction markets such as Kalshi predicted that the race was a toss-up. As of July 12, those same markets showed Democrats having a 63% chance of winning.
Enten noted that the poll shows Platner was "significantly underperforming the fundamentals in Maine." He added that a generic Democratic candidate has a 12-point advantage over Collins in the upcoming midterm election.
"Susan Collins has been winning Senate elections in Maine since — I did the math — before my 10th birthday. My goodness gracious!" Enten said. "But with Susan Collins's luck, her popularity with the Maine electorate is actually more on the downward trend than a lot of Republicans would like."
Enten noted that Collins has a tall task ahead of her now that Platner is out of the race.
"Susan Collins is going to have to break history to win in Maine in 2026. And with Platner out of the race, it makes it much less likely," he said.