Are primary elections showing a significant shift that could foreshadow Republican failures in November?
Over the past year, a few special elections for congressional seats have shown that the Republican Party isn't as enthusiastic as the Democrats appear to be in the election and it's hurting their results.
After the New York 19th Congressional District special election on Tuesday, numbers guru Steve Kornacki detailed that the once Republican seat that flipped to Democrats had a significantly higher turnout among Democratic voters than in previous elections. Pat Ryan won the district that is being seen as a bellwether because it has traditionally been a Republican district.
In 2016, Democrat Zephyr Teachout was defeated by Republican John Faso in the election, but he was voted out in 2018 by Antonio Delgado, who left recently to become the lieutenant governor.
MSNBC's Katy Tur asked if folks should take what happened in New York and potentially apply it to the other midterm races coming up in November, but Kornacki said that it was part of a larger picture.
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"Part of the question we've been asking really the last two months about whether the national political climate has changed in a way that is more favorable to Democrats," he explained. "The other developments that we've seen, even before this last night were, for instance, in the last month or two, the generic congressional ballot. When you ask folks in polling, do you want Democrats, do you want Republicans to control congress, Republicans last year, first half of this year, had been winning on that question. Suddenly, the Democrats in the last month or so have drawn even on that question. So, the Democrats have made gains when it comes to the generic ballot."
He then explained that in the special elections prior to New York there has been a significant changes in the Republican support. In Nebraska and Minnesota, for example, Republicans still won Republican districts, but Democrats in those races did significantly better with little to no help from the national party committees. Democrats have suspected that the Supreme Court's decision on Roe v. Wade has motivated their voters more than Republicans anticipated.
"That set the stage for what we saw in the 19th District of New York last night, which was a true, as Dasha [Burns] was saying, a bellwether district," he continued. "A Trump in 2016, Biden in 2020, exactly the kind of district, a very swingy district, very politically competitive, in a midterm environment where a Republican wave was taking shape, you know, Biden's approval ratings are low, voters are still very sour on the economy. You would expect in that kind of 'red wave' environment, this would be low-hanging fruit for Republicans. And instead, as you see here, Ryan actually running a little bit, a point above where Joe Biden ran in this district."
So, Democrats are holding that seat, despite Republicans thinking it could be a takeback for them. He specifically looked at Ulster County and Columbia county, both Democratic counties that made up 36 percent of the total vote in the 19th district in 2020. But on Tuesday, those two counties made up 42 percent of the vote in the district.
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"The two Democratic counties made up a disproportionately large share of the votes that came out in New York 19 yesterday," explained Kornacki. "Again, that is really strong evidence of increased Democratic enthusiasm, increased Democratic participation. And conversely, when you look at the red areas in the district, the staunchly Republican areas, Molinaro, the Republican, was running up numbers that looked just like Donald Trump's numbers. What he wasn't getting was the equivalent turnout. If he had been getting the equivalent turnout, he probably could and would have won this race yesterday. But he had very high turnout relative to the rest of the district in Democratic areas and lower turnout in the Republican areas."
He then pointed out the New York 23rd District, where the Republican is going to win and that it's a solidly Republican district. The Republicans there only won by about seven points. Trump won that district by 12 points.
Washington Post reporter David Weigel penned a column about the upstate New York race saying that it says a lot about the strategies both parties are using around abortion.
After the Dobbs decision was decided, Pat Ryan unveiled a new slogan reading "Choice is on the ballot," wrote Weigel.
“This is what happens when YOU don’t vote! Vote blue in ’22!” Ryan claimed. Marc Molinaro, on the other hand, was shocked the Court made the move, and tried to talk about anything but abortion. Like most Republicans, inflation and gas prices were the topics they wanted to discuss and blame Democratic President Joe Biden for both of them. It didn't work out for him. Those are the issues the national GOP is encouraging candidates to run on, however.
"After closer-than-expected special elections for U.S. House in right-leaning districts in Nebraska and Minnesota, and after the drubbing of an anti-abortion ballot measure in conservative Kansas, Democrats across the country are increasingly campaigning on protecting and expanding abortion rights, and some Republicans have grown nervous about the potential effects in November," Weigel wrote.
Formerly conservative Washington Post columnist Jennifer Rubin made similar points, anticipating that issues like Dobbs and reminding voters of Trump and his MAGA violence appear to be part of the election.
She suggested that while Biden may have lousy approval ratings, he's still doing a lot better than Donald Trump, and Trump still owns the Republican Party. Candidates who are making it through the GOP primary elections are those endorsed by Trump and are remaking their campaigns in his image. And with Trump scandals continuing to dominate the news, it likely isn't helping Republicans get away from Trumpism.
See the Kornacki video below.
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