From pollsters to gambling companies, the projected odds that Democrats regain control of the House after Tuesday’s election continue to grow toward a 90 percent likelihood.
And the chance of a Democratic sweep of both the House and Senate hovers around 70 percent on prediction markets.
“I think Democrats winning control of the House probably is pretty close to a foregone conclusion as it can be at this point," said Jim Ronan, a professor in the political science department at Villanova University.
“I think it would be really shocking if they didn't win the House.”
If either outcome happens, experts predict the resolve of Democrats to take on President Donald Trump will be put to the test.
Trump likely would veto any legislation that comes through either iteration of a new Congress, but Democrats would still have the opportunity to present new policies, investigate the Trump administration and try to undo bills from the last two years — plus force Republicans to reveal their allegiances through votes on hot-button issues, political scientists and strategists said.
“One of the things that we've seen with divided government is the party in Congress has the ability to put the president on the spot, or put the president in a difficult position and pass legislation that they may know is going to get vetoed, but maybe do it in terms of a PR move or a political move,” Ronan said.
David Miller, assistant professor of government at American University, said even with 90 percent odds of Democrats regaining the House, “anything’s possible" — and there are scenarios where the Republicans keep control of both chambers.
But Republicans themselves have admitted the odds are not in their favor.
“The polling that we've seen, both internally and externally, it does give a little bit of credence to the idea of a heavy Democrat turnout. In looking at the early vote numbers now for the states that do report bi-party voting, we do see a general lean toward more Democrats voting early than Republicans,” said Joseph Lopez, a Texas-based GOP strategist and managing partner of the Prescient Group.
“That being said, whether the blue wave materializes to the extent that I think the Democrats hope, I don't see that happening yet. Although I will say that everybody is, I think, cautiously optimistic that Republicans ultimately kind of will turn out and vote for their party.”
Former Capitol Hill staffers, political science scholars and strategists told Raw Story what can be expected once a new Congress takes over on January 3 based on the results of Tuesday’s election.
If Democrats regain control of the House but Republicans keep control of the Senate, Democrats will have the chance to open investigations into Trump and his administration.
“When the opposition party controls either chamber, they have the power of a subpoena, and they have the ability of House committees or Senate committees to subpoena administration officials,” Ronan said.
“I would be very surprised if we didn't see investigations into something like Iran, where we would see members, the secretary of defense and maybe members of the administration subpoenaed to testify under oath.”
House Democrats might also pursue investigating Trump and his allies for “personal enrichment or abuse of power or conduct,” but Miller said he “wouldn't be surprised if we saw Trump or his subordinates just refuse to respond to congressional subpoenas or summons to go to hearings.”
With split chambers, “we wouldn't see much in the way of moving policies in a liberal or conservative direction,” Miller said.
“I think if the Democrats retake the House, there will be some legislative efforts in the House to rein in or modify policy, but those won't go anywhere because they'd be blocked in the Republican Senate and/or vetoed by President Trump,” Miller said.
That could lead to more “standoffs” between the parties, he said.
“If the next funding bill comes through and House Democrats are particularly insistent that, as a condition of providing this funding, the Trump administration, let's say, stops trying to knock down the Kennedy Center, or there's some other rider attached to the funding, and Trump is insistent that I'm not going to sign a bill that has that condition to it, we will probably end up in some government shutdown scenarios,” Miller said.
Democratic political consultant Christopher Lee said Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) would be inclined to work with a presumptive new Speaker of House in Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY).
“He's going to try and create that lane for himself where he pushes forward, he works with Democrats in the common sense things that he knows will benefit everyone but doesn't really do a whole lot of damage to his own donor base,” Lee said.
“I personally think the Republicans are in a lot of trouble, just because Donald Trump is so toxic.”
A Democratic sweep “completely changes the calculus” for the Trump administration, Ronan said.
“This would not be an era or two years where the Trump administration was looking to pass large programs or significant bills,” Ronan said.
“With divided government, it really becomes, for lack of a better term, just keeping the lights on, just compromise, trying to get budgets through that both Congress and the president can live with, so, I think it would absolutely just kind of stymie the president's agenda,” Ronan said.
“We absolutely would not see something like the ‘Big Beautiful Bill’ or something like voter ID or things like that. Those things would just be off the table.”
Controlling both chambers, Democrats might push forward legislative agenda items like restoring subsidies for the Affordable Care Act, Ronan said.
“With Republicans looking ahead to 2028, it would be more difficult maybe for them to come out against restoring some of those subsidies,” he said.
Democrats would likely focus on “kitchen table issues” like healthcare and affordability, and they might also take on undoing Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill.”
“They're going to make demands about the Epstein files, and they should,” said Lee, partner and senior political strategist for Foresight Strategic Advisors.
“A lot of Republicans, they're going to have to come to a reckoning of sorts that they pushed a lot of these things aside to appease Trump, and it's probably going to cost them the House and the Senate, I would suspect.”
The Democratic Party would likely have two camps sparring to decide which legislative issues to pursue — the “establishment” line focused on “affordability, the cost of living, workers' rights, reining in greedy corporations” or the group focused on “anti-corruption efforts, on reining in the executive branch, reforming the Supreme Court to try to rehab American democracy,” Miller said.
Democratic control of the Senate would help prevent Trump appointing more lower court judges and even Supreme Court justices, said Ira Shapiro, a lawyer and former Senate senior staffer, who co-wrote the book, “Betrayed: America Didn't Vote for This.”
“Taking the Senate would be very important as an indication of the national mood, for one thing, but also as a practical matter, it makes it difficult for Trump to add any federal judges, and particularly the notion of another Supreme Court justice, if Alito decided or was asked to retire.”
When it comes to impeachment, Lee said Democrats won’t try to do so again for Trump, even with control of the Senate, because it’s “a waste of time and effort.”
A two-thirds vote of the senators present is required in the U.S. Senate to convict and remove a president from office.
Ronan agreed, saying, “There would be a risk within the party a little bit of saying is it worth pursuing this again when, at the end of the day, a conviction in the Senate just seems next to impossible, or is it better to kind of try to move on in looking ahead to 2028?”
If Republicans kept control of the House, “it would be nothing short of a shock at this point” and would “embolden” Trump’s power within the Republican party, Ronan said.
“In terms of making it easier for the Trump administration, it would be night and day,” he said.
“Certainly, that would just be a blessing to them.”
Given Trump’s record-low approval ratings, keeping both chambers would allow him to “claim that to be an enormous victory, and I'd have to say that was an enormous victory. I just don't think it's going to happen,” Shapiro said.
“He will act unconstrained,” he said. “That's the problem with Trump. That's the reason why I think this terrible period doesn't end until he's out of office.”
But, ultimately, Republicans likely wouldn’t be able to pass any major legislation at the end of Trump’s term, Ronan said.
From Ronald Reagan to Barack Obama, presidents typically don’t have “any real history of a signature program” in their final two years, he said.
The effectiveness of the incoming members hinges on how the next two months play out between Tuesday and the swearing-in of the new Congress on Jan. 3, Miller said.
That includes Trump potentially “sending federal officers to polling places to intimidate people or try to arrest people, sending federal officers to seize ballot boxes, trying to encourage his allies or Republicans who run election boards to not certify Democratic winners, blocking members from taking seats if he, for some reason, thinks the election is illegitimate,” Miller said.
Republicans who follow Trump’s orders in such a case risk suffering “professional consequences for the rest of their careers,” he said.
“If the tides turn and the country comes to realize that this kind of election denialism is negative for democracy, and so that those that participated in it are penalized, it'll be a stain on their record,” Miller said.
Lopez, the GOP strategist, said Democrats have a chance to set themselves up well for 2028 if they don’t waste their power with a “a lather, rinse, repeat cycle.”
“If Democrats do come in and can stick to the messaging and the issues at hand of what they're hearing from voters and what we're seeing in a lot of these polls about how affordability, the economy, the cost of living are the biggest issues, if they can go in and truly attack that, I feel that is an immediate inroad that they can make, something that will stick going into 2028,” Lopez said.
Shapiro said the ultimate challenge is “when the dust settles, we will still face the problem that Trump is still the president.”
“It'll be up to the next Congress to decide if this terrible presidency should be allowed to run its full course.”