Iran's Revolutionary Guards have consolidated control over the country's military and diplomatic strategy, effectively sidelining the newly appointed supreme leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, who remains gravely wounded and in hiding following airstrikes that killed his father.
Khamenei, wounded in the Feb. 28 bombing of his family's compound that killed his father, wife and son, has delegated decision-making authority to military commanders, and he's surrounded mostly by doctors and medical staffers, and senior commanders and government officials do not visit out of fear that Israel will track them to him and kill the new leader, reported the New York Times.
"Though Mr. Khamenei was gravely wounded, he is mentally sharp and engaged, according to four senior Iranian officials familiar with his health," the Times reported. "One leg was operated on three times, and he is awaiting a prosthetic. He had surgery on one hand and is slowly regaining function. His face and lips have been burned severely, making it difficult for him to speak, the officials said, adding that, eventually, he will need plastic surgery."
"Mr. Khamenei has not recorded a video or audio message, the officials said, because he does not want to appear vulnerable or sound weak in his first public address," the report added. "He has issued several written statements that have been posted online and read on state television. Messages to him are handwritten, sealed in envelopes and relayed via a human chain from one trusted courier to the next ... on highways and back roads ... [and] his guidance on issues snakes back the same way."
The power vacuum has been filled by battle-hardened Revolutionary Guards commanders who now control decisions regarding war, peace, and negotiations with the United States.
"Mojtaba is not supreme; he might be leader in name, but he is not supreme the way his father was," said Ali Vaez, Iran director of the International Crisis Group. "Mojtaba is subservient to the Revolutionary Guards because he owes his position and he owes the survival of the system to them."
The Guards have marginalized elected officials, including President Masoud Pezeshkian and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. They orchestrated Iran's military strategy, approved the Strait of Hormuz closure, authorized the ceasefire, and selected Parliamentary Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf to lead negotiations with Vice President JD Vance in Islamabad.
Tensions emerged when generals halted peace talks after Trump maintained a naval blockade and seized Iranian ships. Commander in Chief Ahmad Vahidi argued negotiations were futile. Pezeshkian and Araghchi opposed the decision, warning of $300 billion in war losses and the need for sanctions relief, but the generals prevailed.
Khamenei's deep personal ties to military commanders — forged when he volunteered to fight in the Iran-Iraq war as a teenager — have reinforced the Guards' dominance.
Trump claimed the war produced "regime change" and "more reasonable" leaders, but analysts note power has consolidated in the hands of hard-line military forces, not moderates.