'Adios amigos!' Oddmakers losing faith that Trump will get all of his nominees confirmed
Betting markets are less confident that Donald Trump will get all of his Cabinet nominees confirmed after Matt Gaetz dropped out of the running for attorney general.
The Florida Republican withdrew from consideration after Republican senators spoke out against his nomination over sex trafficking allegations, and CNN's Harry Enten said the betting markets have reduced the odds that Pete Hegseth and other Trump nominee's will make it through Senate confirmation.
"Based upon that sexual assault allegation, look at this, the chance that [Hegseth] gets confirmed as defense secretary a week ago, we were looking at an 82 percent chance, according to the betting markets," Enten said. "Now we're down to just a 54 percent chance, so those odds have dropped dramatically. Now this is still a little bit north of 50 percent, but we're basically looking at a 50-50 proposition here. Of course, Matt Gaetz, before he actually stepped back, his chances were well south of 50 percent, so Hegseth is doing better than Gaetz was, but far worse than he was doing just a week ago."
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Hegseth has the worst odds at 54 percent, but Enten said two other Trump nominees – Tulsi Gabbard and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. – also face unfavorable odds.
"Gabbard and RFK Jr. are not shoo-ins by any stretch of the imagination, so national intel director, national intelligence director, look at this – Gabbard is at 70 percent, so there's a 30 percent chance that this could go the other way," Enten said. "Many of the more secure nominations, like [Elise] Stefanik to be UN ambassador, that's well up into the 90s. How about RFK Jr.? He's standing at 73 percent, which again, is well above 50 percent, but well south of a sure thing."
"Have RFK Jr.'s odds gone down?" he added. "In fact, they have. I was looking at them. They were close to about 90 percent when his name was first getting floated. So as some of the more controversial stances of RFK, whether they be as many in the big names in the medical community are speaking out against it, and, correct, as many of the big names in the medical community have been speaking out against him, his odds have definitely been falling. Again, still north of 50 percent, but this is far from a surprise if one of these end up going adios amigos! Both of them being confirmed most likely, but at this particular point, at least one of them not getting confirmed, there's a pretty decent chance of that."
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