Republican strategists and lawmakers are increasingly convinced that Sen. Darline Graham's campaign to succeed her late brother in the Senate is headed for a contentious runoff.
Six senior GOP operatives and lawmakers told Jewish Insider they expect Graham to finish among the top two candidates in South Carolina's Aug. 11 special primary but fall short of the outright majority her brother, the late Sen. Lindsey Graham, secured in his own primary in June.
That would trigger an Aug. 25 runoff against either Rep. Ralph Norman or Rep. Russell Fry, both of whom have continued running competitively despite President Donald Trump's endorsement of Graham.
“Not everything that happens in a Republican primary is about Donald Trump," said GOP strategist Doug Heye. "His endorsement is always a boost, but that’s it.”
Graham has spent the past several weeks mourning her brother's death while simultaneously being thrust into a national campaign, and multiple lawmakers say colleagues have been reluctant to attack her directly given the circumstances. That restraint, several sources warned, has a shelf life.
"Nobody wants to be seen hitting someone whose brother literally just died," a senior GOP campaign official said, "but at some point the gloves are gonna have to come off at least somewhat."
Another Republican senator was blunter, saying they were "afraid it could be a brawl before it's over, especially if her opponent feels like they're up against a wall and corners her. We know how this goes."
Those attacks could intensify sharply if the race advances to a runoff. "At that point, it is a whole new ball game and she's no longer a grieving sister," that GOP senator said. "She becomes a semi-incumbent obstacle to whoever wants to win."
There's a sense among Republicans that Graham remains a largely undefined figure to voters — she has no voting record of her own and has yet to fully articulate her political positions, unlike Norman and Fry, both of whom have long, well-known records.
Some also note her brother's own primary drew resistance from a segment of hardcore conservative voters who may view Graham's candidacy as a continuation of his politics rather than a fresh start.
“Lindsey just made his way through a pretty contentious primary himself, and there is a degree of the primary electorate that was not a fan of his. I think that segment will still be very much adamantly opposed to this because they’ll see it as a continuation of the policies that they don’t support,” a senior GOP campaign source said. “Ralph Norman is a little bit better positioned to capture some of these hardcore conservative voters. I think she’ll have a difficult time even with the president’s endorsement.”