Democrats' advantage in national congressional polling has climbed to its highest point of the 2026 cycle, and CNN's Harry Enten says history suggests Republicans should be alarmed.
With just 34 days left before the midterm elections, the network's chief data analayst said Democrats now lead by an average of 9 points on the generic congressional ballot, which asks voters which party they plan to support for Congress.
"The Democratic wave ain't going away," Enten said. "If anything it seems to be building at this particular moment."
Democrats have steadily climbed in public support, leading by 3 points a year ago, 5 points six months ago and 7 points a month ago. Because the figure is an average of many polls rather than a single survey, Enten said, the trend is clearly moving in Democrats' favor.
The current margin is the party's largest at this stage of a campaign since 2008, when Democrats won their biggest House and Senate majorities of the century so far.
"When you see the Democrats ahead by 9, sirens should be going off at any of the National Republican Senatorial Committee or Congressional Committee headquarters," Enten said. "These are numbers that Democrats should be salivating over and should strike real fear into Republicans nationwide."
Since 1942, he said, Democrats have held a lead of at least 9 points in national congressional polling this late in the cycle 15 times, and they went on to win the House all 15 times.
"That is really, really good news for Democrats because it means that at least historically speaking, they are on their way to at least a House majority, maybe a Senate majority," he said. "I believe that that is 100 percent of the time."
However, he cautioned that this year could still break the pattern.
"Look, 2026 may be different, but based upon history, you really have to like where you are," Enten said. "You're definitely in the catbird seat if you are a Democrat running for Congress or want Democrats to win."