Democrats are aggressively targeting Republican-held House seats in districts President Donald Trump won decisively in 2024, betting that his unpopularity and scandals plaguing GOP incumbents create unexpected vulnerabilities in traditionally safe Republican territory.
The strategy centers on forcing Republicans to defend seats they previously considered secure, stretching GOP resources thin across multiple fronts, reported the Washington Post.
“Our goal has been to put as many Trump-district Republicans on defense as possible, so they never have the chance to go on offense,” said CJ Warnke, a spokesman for the House Majority PAC. “If we’re fighting and winning one Trump plus-15 district, we are winning many Trump plus-five-to-10 seats.”
The nonpartisan Cook Political Report identifies only 17 true toss-up districts this cycle, down significantly from previous election cycles due to aggressive partisan gerrymandering. By making Trump-won districts competitive, Democrats hope to pressure Republicans into costly defensive battles while limiting their ability to attack Democratic-held swing seats.
Tennessee's 5th District illustrates the emerging dynamic. Rep. Andy Ogles, who won by 13.5 points in 2022 without serious opposition in 2024, now faces Democratic Mayor Chaz Molder, who has raised four times more money. Federal disclosures show Ogles raised just $139,000 in the first quarter with $85,000 on hand, compared to Molder's $615,000 raised and $1.3 million in the bank. Cook revised the race from solid Republican to likely Republican in January, alarming GOP leaders.
“Traditionally it’s not been a battleground, but we’re changing that in this cycle,” Modler said. “In this district the Democratic brand is damaged. My objective is to show that brand can always be repaired.”
Ogles faces additional complications beyond fundraising disadvantages. The House Ethics Committee is investigating allegations that he falsely reported a personal loan to inflate campaign cash on hand. He has also faced condemnation from Muslim and Jewish groups for social media posts stating "Muslims don't belong in American society" and calling for their deportation. In March, he called for executing Reps. Eric Swalwell and Tony Gonzales, saying "let's hang 'em" on a right-wing podcast.
Democrats are similarly targeting Rep. Cory Mills in Florida's 7th District. The House Ethics Committee is investigating Mills for sexual misconduct and receiving improper gifts. According to body-camera footage reviewed by the Washington Post, D.C. police were prepared to arrest Mills in February 2025 after a woman accused him of assault, but backed off after the woman changed her account following an apparent conversation with the congressman. A Trump-appointed prosecutor refused to seek an arrest warrant.
Mills raised only $75,000 in the first quarter with $115,500 on hand, while his Democratic opponent, Navy veteran Bale Dalton, raised $348,580 and had $464,400 saved.
Republicans dismiss the effort as futile. "House Democrats are trying to invade ruby-red Republican territory with embarrassing recruitment failures and empty bank accounts," said National Republican Congressional Committee spokesman Mike Marinella.
Trump is mobilizing to protect his party's majority, defying historical patterns where the president's party loses seats in midterms. White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles briefed operatives affiliated with Trump's MAGA Inc. super PAC on midterm strategy and data.