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The Democrats need to flip 24 seats to win back the House -- here's how they can get there
March 14, 2018 9:30AM ET
Paul Ryan speaks to Fox News (screen grab)
Democrat Conor Lamb's apparent upset win in Pennsylvania's 18th congressional district is sending shockwaves through the Republican Party, as the district had voted for President Donald Trump by 20 points in 2016.
According to the Cook Partisan Voting Index, PA-18 is rated as a Republican +11 district, which means Republican candidates have a built-in 11-point advantage over Democratic candidates.
What should really concern Republicans, however, is that there are more than 100 Republican-held districts across the country that are rated as less Republican than PA-18 -- meaning dozens of GOP incumbents now find themselves potentially vulnerable.
Based on Cook's Partisan Voting Index, here are the most promising districts for Democratic pick ups.
Winning those 25 seats would be more than enough for Democrats to win the majority -- and there are currently seven R +3 seats held by Republicans, as well as 11 R +4 seats held by Republicans. And for the record, House Speaker Paul Ryan's Wisconsin 1 district is rated as R +5, which means even he may not be completely safe from a blue wave.
None of this guarantees Democrats will win all these seats. However, when a Democrat can win in an R +11 district, it shows that the party will have no shortage of potential targets this fall.