Democrats are licking their chops for November's midterm elections, according to CNN's Harry Enten, after flipping a Republican seat in the Florida statehouse district that includes President Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort.
Democrat Emily Gregory won a special election Tuesday over the Trump-endorsed Republican candidate Jon Maples, and Enten broke down the results and their bearing on this year's congressional races.
"How delicious for Democratsthis morning, my goodnessgracious," Enten said. "They're waking up, maybe they're going to getbrunch at Mar-a-Lago and sayyummy, yummy, because thisresult will make their stomachsfeel quite good indeed.Florida's 87th House districtelection margin – look atthis. In 2024, Donald Trump wonit by 11 points. Look at thisswing all the way to the left. We got Gregory the Democrat,winning it by two points in thisstatehouse special election."
"Iwill also note that they flippeda state Senate district as well further north in the state," he added. "Sodouble fun for Democrats in astate that they have beenstruggling with. Democrats havelost so much power in Floridaover the last decade, and thenthey're able to win in Donald Trump's back yard. Democrats areabsolutely loving it."
This race was a continuation of a trend Enten has been tracking since Trump was re-elected in 2024.
"Look what is happeningaround Mar-a-Lago is not juststaying at Mar-a-Lago, it'sexpanding out," he said. "I mentioned thatother districts of the state Senate district they flippedlast night in Florida, but it's not just there. It's nationwide,as well. Take a look here, okay, the average 2025, 2026 specialelection so far, Democrats aredoing get this 12 points better,up like a rocket versus Kamala Harris's baseline in 2024. This12 points is very similar to this13-point swing that we saw rightin Florida, right around Mar-a-Lago in the 87th district."
"I will note, I was countingit up, I believe that is about adozen different specialelections in which we have seena flip from Republican controlto Democrat control," Enten added. "So what ishappening and happened lastnight in Fllorida is reallyemblematic of what we have seennationwide so far, which is Democrats very much outrunningthe baseline from 2024."
Those results forecast a big Democratic win in November, Enten said, based on historical trends.
"We are getting some reallybig signs," Enten said. "Look, part of thereason we look at this, it's notjust because I love elections,which I absolutely do. ...It is because they mean so muchfor power come November. Lookback through the history books, look back, since I was in highschool, look at thespecial elections and midtermresults. When a partyoutperforms midterm specialelections in midterm cyclessince 2005, look at this, fiveout of five times that sameparty went on to win the U.S. House of Representatives."
"Thefact that Democrats areoutperforming not just around Mar-a-Lago but nationwide, aswell, is a very telling sign forthe future," he added. "Look, sometimeshistory isn't always prologue, butin this particular case, basedupon everything we're seeing, I'm betting it is. What happenedlast night in Florida probablyis emblematic of a larger signthat Democrats are very muchlikely heading towards gettingback the U.S. House of Representatives."