As Republicans celebrate their wins across all three branches of government, The Atlantic's Russell Berman lays out why a good chuck of Donald Trump's proposed legislation will have a difficult time passing through Congress — even despite the party's "218th House-race victory."
In a Wednesday article, Berman notes, "How many more seats the Republicans will win depends on the outcome of a few contests, in California and elsewhere, where ballots are still being counted. But the GOP’s final margin is likely to be similar to the four-seat advantage it held for most of the past two years, when internal division and leadership battles prevented the party from accomplishing much of anything."
Furthermore, he points out, "Such a slim majority means that the legislation most prized on the right and feared by the left—a national abortion ban, dramatic cuts to federal spending, the repeal of Barack Obama’s Affordable Care Act and Joe Biden’s largest domestic-policy achievements—is unlikely to pass Congress."
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Former House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-WI) aide Brendan Buck told Berman, “I don’t think they’re even going to try on any of those things."
The Atlantic staff writer also notes, "How many votes are needed to pass bills in the Senate won’t mean much if Trump can’t get legislation through the House, and that could be a far more difficult proposition. The two speakers during the current Congress, Kevin McCarthy and Mike Johnson, each had to rely on Democrats to get major bills passed, because the GOP’s majority proved too thin to govern."
Furthermore, "Republican edge could be even narrower next year if Democrats win a few more of the final uncalled races," Berman emphasizes.
Berman's full report is available here (subscription required).