President Donald Trump's popularity fell to the lowest point so far in his second term, just as voters head to the polls in three states – including his home state of Florida.
According to a Reuters/Ipsos poll, Trump's net approval now sits 31 points underwater, a stunning reversal from the plus-6 rating he held at the start of his second term – marking a 37-point collapse.
"You know, if this were a game of limbo, President Trump would be winning," Enten said. "Unfortunately, this is the game of presidential popularity, and he is reaching record lows yet again. He is losing."
Trump approval sits far worse than where he stood at the same point in his first term, when he was only 12 points underwater before the 2018 midterms — a cycle that proved disastrous for Republicans. According to Enten's math, Trump is performing 19 points worse now than he did then.
The steepest decline is among independents, the voters Enten called "the driver in elections." Trump's approval among that group has cratered to 47 points underwater, down from roughly even – minus 1 – when his second term began, which Enten highlighted as a 46-point drop.
Compared to his first term, when he was only 10 points underwater with independents at the same point before the midterms, the erosion is even starker – a 37-point swing.
"This has been the problem with President Trump's second term, according to the public, which is he is going and placating the base, but leaving the center of the electorate behind," Enten said. "But you know what? You have to win the center of the electorate in order to maintain your popularity in order for Republicans to win these midterm elections. But independents are saying, you know what? We don't like what's going on, see you later."
For a historical parallel, Enten pointed not to 2018 but to 2006, when George W. Bush's net approval was also 31 points underwater ahead of that year's midterms. Republicans went on to lose both the House and the Senate.
"Historically, when you look at these abysmal numbers for the president," said CNN's Sara Sidner, "his approval rating, the lowest of his presidency, what it might mean for the midterms."
The question, Enten said, is whether disaffected independents translate their frustration into votes for Democrats or simply stay home, and he said Tuesday's primary results were expected to offer the first real-world glimpse of how deep the slide has cut into Republicans' electoral prospects.
"If these numbers hold and this historical analogy holds, Democrats will have a very happy Election Night," Enten said.