Republicans have spent months bracing for a rural backlash over AI data centers — but another issue is lurking over the horizon for voters in rural states.
Diesel fuel prices are grinding toward a record just two months before the midterms, and that matters most for Republican candidates because high costs for diesel hit farmers and truckers first before spreading across suburban communities, reported Politico.
"That shortage will be acutely felt by the farmers during the harvest," said Kevin Book of ClearView Energy Partners, noting the timing collides with holiday trucking demand and heating-oil season in states like Maine and Alaska. "There is a very strong history of caring about heating oil ahead of elections."
The average price of a gallon of diesel hit $5.60 Monday, up roughly $1 since early July and nearly $2 higher than a year ago, closing in on the $5.816 record set in June 2022. The war in Iran, Russian production disruptions, and U.S. refining bottlenecks have pushed diesel prices up faster than gasoline or crude, and inventories are at record lows heading into peak demand season.
The buildout of data centers across rural communities has resulted in a groundswell of bipartisan opposition, and Republicans are concerned the blowback could take out Sen. Jon Husted (R-OH) and other GOP candidates, but shortages of diesel fuel and truck drivers pose another immediate risk to their chances.
"We've never seen this," said analyst Dean Croke of DAT Freight & Analytics. "What you're seeing is a real squeeze going on right now."
A Politico poll this month found most Americans believe President Donald Trump's six-month-old war with Iran has made life more expensive for their families. The White House, which is convening oil refiners this week, disputes that its policies worsened the driver shortage and points to its "Freedom Hauler" veteran-recruitment program.
Colby College professor Nicholas Jacobs said the diesel spike is a political opening Democrats are largely squandering by focusing on "oligarchs and billionaires" instead of pocketbook costs. "The other party has to show up and show them an alternative," he said.
The Trump administration has few options for reversing fuel shortages after ruling out limits on petroleum exports, but Book said there's one remedy that would only make things worse.
But the prospect of fuel shortages is growing by the day. And the Trump administration doesn’t have many more tools at its disposal, having ruled out limits on petroleum exports. But there’s one fix that almost no one would choose.
“The fastest road to a lower price,” Book said, “could be a recession.”