A lightning offensive by Iranian-backed Houthi militants along Yemen's Red Sea coast has handed Tehran fresh leverage in its economic standoff with Washington, giving Iran the ability to threaten a chokepoint even busier than the Strait of Hormuz.
The Houthis swept through the towns of Mokha and Dhabab last week and seized the island of Perim, cementing control over the Bab al-Mandab Strait at the mouth of the Red Sea, known as the "Gate of Tears," and notching a stunning strategic victory, experts told the Washington Post.
"This is a major, almost unprecedented, strategic achievement for Iran and the Houthis," said Dennis Citrinowicz, an Iran expert at the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv and a former Israeli military intelligence analyst. "At precisely the moment when Tehran is trying to drive up the economic cost of its confrontation with the United States, the Houthi advance gives Iran enormous additional leverage."
About 8.7 percent of global seaborne trade passes through the strait, according to U.N. figures, including 20 percent of container and car shipments and 15 percent of oil products. With Iran-aligned forces now near both Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab, Tehran could squeeze Washington on multiple fronts.
The timing is damaging for President Donald Trump, who faces political pressure from an unpopular war with Iran and rising energy prices two months before the Nov. 3 midterms.
Trump has acknowledged he does not expect to end the conflict or lower gas prices before Election Day. Oil has jumped above $100 a barrel, its highest level since May.
"Friday was the first day that Iran really started winning the war," one Yemeni official aligned with the Saudi-backed government told the Post, speaking anonymously.
Trump struck a softer tone Saturday, telling reporters "the Houthis called us" and claiming they "don't want to fight with us," adding that "they are letting most ships go through."
Yet the advance came alongside a drone strike, likely by Iran-backed Iraqi militias, on a Saudi pipeline moving 7 million barrels of oil daily toward the Red Sea — a pattern analysts see as coordination between Tehran and its proxies.
Sima Shine, a former head of analysis at Mossad, said Iran is exploiting the pre-election window to drive up prices and pressure Trump on multiple fronts. Bahrain-based commentator Abdullah al-Junaid said a renewed U.S. campaign is unlikely given how thin American naval assets are.
Citrinowicz said Iran is now close to choking off nearly all of Saudi Arabia's export routes. "What makes this particularly serious is that there is no obvious solution on the horizon, military or economic," he said.