President Donald Trump's off-the-cuff statements about the Iran war have sowed confusion among foreign leaders and financial markets, and within his own administration.
Some of the 79-year-old president's aides and allies confirmed to Axios that Trump has been improvising his plan for the war, saying he likes to keep his options open and spitball ideas for the joint U.S.-Israeli military operation with various audiences, and they said he has vacillated between a major escalation and a swift resolution.
"Nobody knows in the end what he's really thinking," said one senior adviser.
"They had a plan for the first week and since then, they are making the plan up as they go along," added a former U.S. official.
Some administration officials and outside allies argue the ambiguity is intentional. Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC), who recently spoke with Trump, told Axios: "That's the plan — for you to not have a clue." Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth echoed this sentiment, stating the objective is to remain "unpredictable." An unnamed official characterized the strategy as "12-dimensional" chess, claiming Trump deliberately contradicts himself to obscure his intentions.
Current signals suggest Trump may be preparing to withdraw and declare victory within two to three weeks. He has repeatedly discussed U.S. success and potential exit scenarios. However, his private conversations increasingly focus on hawkish advisers like Graham and conservative commentator Mark Levin rather than those cautioning against escalation.
The contradictions are apparent in simultaneous actions: Trump discusses exit strategies while simultaneously massing additional forces in the region, including potential invasion capabilities. Officials speculate that if an April 6 deadline passes without a negotiated settlement, Trump may authorize heavy bombing of Iranian infrastructure and nuclear facilities before withdrawing.
Regional allies like Israel, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates worry about leaving Iran weakened but unbowed.
"The Saudis sound like Mark Levin," one Trump adviser said. "They want the U.S. to finish the job by wiping Iran off the globe now. We don't want to."
Additional complications include unresolved challenges regarding the Strait of Hormuz and potential ongoing "mowing the grass" operations — periodic strikes conducted after major combat concludes.
"The president said early on we might have to come back," another administration official said, "and we might have to. If we have to mow the lawn again, the grass won't be nearly as tall next time."
Trump is scheduled to address the nation on Iran Wednesday evening, potentially offering the clarity his own advisers and international partners desperately seek.