Rick Wilson, a former Republican operative and co-founder of the anti-Trump group The Lincoln Project, signaled that MAGA is heading for an "extinction-level" event under President Donald Trump.
Wilson wrote in a Substack essay Tuesday that Republicans have a bevy of problems ahead of the 2026 midterm elections, including a number of GOP retirements, Trump's plummeting approval rating, an enthusiasm gap and an inability to see Americans' unmet economic needs.
"Republicans are retiring because a political asteroid created by Donald Trump is coming to smash into the political Chicxulub they’ve enjoyed for the last decade," Wilson wrote.
These issues have an expected outcome — a wave election — something Wilson described viewing throughout his career and in four previous elections: 1994, 2006, 2010 and 2018.
"And if you look at the numbers, the mood, and the sheer grinding dysfunction, engineered economic chaos, and raging corruption of Trump’s second term, 2026 is starting to look like one of those nights."
These elections all had similar aspects in common.
"Four different waves, one underlying rule: when the country decides it’s sick of the president and his party, it does not whisper. It shouts. The meteor doesn’t streak across the night sky to sighs of 'Make a wish.' It screams through the atmosphere, a fiery harbinger of death," Wilson wrote.
In upcoming House races, it appears these elections are more nationalized and "feels like a referendum on one guy," Wilson wrote.
"Trump is ... the garbage troll who defines our politics. Republicans have never had a political lift from Trump even in his better years, and now he’s a deadly political toxin for them. Enjoy!" Wilson wrote.
And for MAGA, the power hold might not last much longer. Although nothing is guaranteed in politics, Wilson added, it could give Democrats a path forward — if they stay focused on messaging around the economy and how expensive the cost of living is.
"Special elections, off-year races, and local contests are not entirely predictive, but they’ve started to tilt in ways that should make the GOP wake up at 3 a.m. in a cold sweat," Wilson warned. "Suburban districts that were once safely Republican are suddenly coin flips. Places that should be competitive are blowing out blue."