A new poll shows both Donald Trump and Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) could be in danger of losing in Texas, much to the shock of political observers.
The survey conducted by the University of Houston found Trump leading vice president Kamala Harris 49.5 percent to 44.6 percent, while Cruz led Rep. Colin Allred (D-TX) 46.6 percent to 44.5 percent in Texas, which is a substantial turnaround from an earlier poll that found the Republican nominee leading president Joe Biden by 49 percent to 40 percent.
"A poll has dropped showing only Trump +4 in Texas, and the same poll has Cruz +2 for the Senate," said the nonpartisan Political Polls account on X. "This pollster has no rating, but since it’s not a swing state, it’s allowed to get put in. If this poll is accurate, it should be a five-alarm fire for the GOP."
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The poll, which was conducted Aug. 5 through Aug. 16 by surveying 1,365 likely voters, has a margin of error of 2.65 percent, which is slightly larger than the 2.1 percent lead it measured for Cruz, a two-term incumbent.
"This is too close for Trump and Cruz," said former Trump campaign attorney Jenna Ellis.
A poll conducted in June by the university's Hobby School of Public Affairs found Biden with just 40 percent support in a head-to-head matchup with Trump, but the new survey found Harris gained 8 percent over the president among women, 13 points among voters who did not participate in 2020, 16 points among Generation Z voters and 21 points with independents.
The vice president had higher support among 2020 Biden voters in the August poll, at 91 percent, than the president did in June, when the poll measured 84 percent support from those who'd cast ballots for him four years ago.
"Looking at the 878 likely Texas voters who responded to both polls, Trump has a 4 point lead over Harris," reported Eleanor Dearman for the Fort Worth Star-Telegram. "The voters gave Trump a 5.5 point lead over Biden in the version released in July. Trump kept 97 precent of his votes, with 2 percent switching to Harris in August and 1 percent saying they’re unsure who they’ll vote for. Harris kept the support of 96 precent of likely Biden voters, with 3 percent saying in the August poll that they now plan to vote for Trump and 1 percent were unsure."