President Donald Trump heads to San Antonio for his third trip to Texas in under a month, and sources close to him say the stakes go well beyond keeping one Senate seat in Republican hands.
Republicans likely need to hold Texas to keep their Senate majority in a hostile national environment, but for Trump, the race is personal, sources told MS NOW, because his last-minute endorsement helped Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton oust longtime Sen. John Cornyn in a bitter GOP primary runoff in May.
But Paxton is now locked in a close race with Democratic state Rep. James Talarico, who has held a narrow but steady lead in public polling.
"Texas is a must win, and this would be his biggest endorsement fail," a former White House official told MS NOW. "This one would be a stain on his list."
Wednesday's rally follows Trump's remarks at a truck factory in Denton last week and an unprecedented two-day Republican midterm convention in Dallas. Trump has promised to visit the 35 most competitive races in the country, but he keeps coming back the Lone Star State to play defense.
Republicans haven't lost a statewide race in Texas since 1994, but this year the GOP is on its heels over the war with Iran and high gas prices – issues on which Trump polls poorly with moderate voters.
"It highlights the dangerous and unsettling position the Republican Party finds itself in – shoring up the GOP base that's been hurt viciously by Trump's tariff and war policies," another former Trump administration official said. "These red states are hurting."
Trump himself admitted at a rally in Oklahoma last week that he was "worried" about Texas and urged supporters to vote as if he were on the ballot.
Republicans hold a 53-47 Senate majority, so Democrats need a net gain of four seats. Democrats don't need Texas to get there, but losing it would leave Republicans very little margin for error.
Not every Texas Republican is rushing to stand beside the president. Gov. Greg Abbott, whose own re-election race is polling within the margin of error, is skipping Wednesday's rally and cited scheduling conflicts.
"If you have the [three]-term Republican governor of Texas ... giving Donald Trump the Heisman like 'I don't want to be seen with you,' that is a testament to how bad the Trump brand is right now," the former administration official said.
One GOP strategist waved off the concerns and insisted Republicans "feel confident about maintaining the Senate majority." The strategist also argued that a Paxton loss wouldn't reflect on Trump's endorsement.
The race has already drawn at least $450 million in ad spending, according to AdImpact.
The pressure is showing on Paxton, too. In leaked audio obtained by Axios, the candidate told donors last month that "the war" and gas prices were dragging down his campaign, adding, "I don't make the decisions."