Experts fear pro-Trump radicals could spark 'mass casualty event' if he's jailed: report

Almost three years have passed since the January 6, 2021 insurrection, in which a mob of Donald Trump supporters violently attacked the U.S. Capitol in the hope of stopping Congress from certifying now-President Joe Biden's victory.

A combination of Trump critics and national security experts have been fearing that the 2024 presidential election could also be accompanied by violence — a possibility that journalist Spencer Sunshine examines in a report published by The New Republic Thursday.

Sunshine, author of the forthcoming book "Neo-Nazi Terrorism and Countercultural Fascism: The Origins and Afterlife of James Mason's Siege," explains, "Observers of the far right are keenly aware of the movement's continuing strength.

“For years, many hoped the forces unleashed by Trump's ascent in 2016 would reach a point of sudden collapse, as had happened in the past.… But this has not been the case, and even in the absence of new high-profile events, the far right's activist base has continued largely unfazed under President Biden."

Sunshine adds, "Looking at its organizations and strategies, as well as issues from the past year, show what it will hit the ground running with as the 2024 presidential campaign heats up."

Despite facing four criminal indictments, Trump remains the clear frontrunner in the 2024 GOP presidential primary. Many polls are showing a close election in a hypothetical Trump/Biden rematch, and Sunshine emphasizes that "experts who watch the far right are concerned about possible violence" if Trump loses.

"David Neiwert, author of 'The Age of Insurrection,' says that although he thinks it is unlikely that Trump will win, if he doesn't, his 'hardcore supporters are going to engage in acts of domestic terrorism,'" Sunshine warns.

"If he is convicted and sentenced to jail time, Neiwert believes they may even go so far as to 'try and break him out' of prison. Journalist Teddy Wilson, publisher of Radical Reports, is only a little less circumspect, saying that 'another mass casualty event' like the 1995 Oklahoma City bombing, which killed 168, is 'hanging in the air.'

And Professor Amy Cooter, author of 'Nostalgia, Nationalism, and the U.S. Militia Movement,' says she 'would not be shocked' by violence following the election — although she hesitates to say it would be a certainty."

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Sunshine points out that 2023 had its share of domestic terrorist attacks — and more are feared in 2024 during what could be a very tense election.

"Since January 6, (2021)," the journalist notes, "over 1,000 people have been charged for their role in the violent assault on the Capitol, with some receiving stiff sentences... Of course, even out of power the far right has continued to practice what it's best known for: violence. White supremacist massacres in 2023 included one at a Jacksonville, Florida dollar store — three killed — and a Dallas, Texas shopping mall: eight killed. And this is in addition to individual murders like those of Laura Ann Carleton, who was killed for hanging a Pride flag outside her store."

Sunshine continues, "Enabled by online anonymity, threats toward anyone perceived as an enemy are now commonplace occurrences. While many are directed at elected officials, such as opponents of Jim Jordan's nomination as speaker of the House, it's now common to target judges, juries, teachers — even hospitals. According to the National Counterterrorism Innovation, Technology, and Education Center, last year federal prosecutions for these threats were the highest in a decade and are only expected to rise."

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