'Fundamental mistake': GOP's strategy to win crucial state reportedly falling flat

As President Donald Trump pours millions of dollars into the Virginia governor race, Republican nominee Winsome Earle-Sears has struggled to land on an effective messaging strategy, at least according to recent polls and several political strategists who say the GOP is stuck repeating its messaging from last year, and to underwhelming results.

Much of Earle-Sears’ campaign has been centered around attack ads against her opponent labeling her as a “radical,” and leaning into fears around transgender people, much as Trump had done against presidential candidate Kamala Harris in 2024.

But the strategy isn’t working this time around, at least according to Jesse Ferguson, a Democratic strategist, speaking with The Washington Post in its report Sunday.

“They’re falling into the fundamental mistake of trying to refight the last war and not realizing that the battlefield has changed,” Ferguson said. “They can no longer attack Democrats as focused on other issues and pretend that they are so focused on cost of living when most people feel betrayed on cost of living.”

Recent polling shows that while the race is close, Earle-Sears is trailing behind her Democratic opponent, Abigail Spanberger, suggesting that Earle-Sears’ messaging – leaning into fear of transgender people – isn’t resonating with GOP voters like it did last November.

“This election, don’t let radicals decide what kind of man gets to undress next to your daughter at school,” Earle-Sears can be heard saying in a recent campaign ad, according to the Post.

But the attacks haven’t landed, with Alex Conant, a GOP strategist on Earle-Sears’ campaign, admitting that labeling her opponent as a radical Democrat was difficult.

“They realize it’s hard to beat a moderate Democrat in Virginia in this environment so they have to convince voters that she’s a radical,” Conant said, speaking with the Post. “That’s hard to do with someone who is a fairly known commodity and is spending a ton of money on her own talking about her moderate record.”