A veteran GOP adviser has coined the term “Red Scream” to describe the frustration conservatives and independents feel at being ignored by Donald Trump and Republican leaders ahead of the midterm elections.
According to Axios, that frustration could keep those voters home and cost the GOP control of the Senate.
“The Red Scream is my biggest concern, not the blue wave,” warned Alex Castellanos, a veteran Republican consultant. “Republicans and independents are going to be screaming for attention, and many of them, including those who voted for Trump, may show their frustration by not showing up.”
According to the Axios report, Senate Republicans see Iowa "moving their way" and Ohio "slipping," with pessimism growing over Alaska and Kansas. According to half a dozen senior operatives, "even when they squint, top Republicans struggle to see a majority beyond 51 seats, according to half a dozen senior operatives."
Republicans are fighting on two fronts: unprecedented Democratic enthusiasm and undeniable Republican apathy. Trump’s strategy has been to fire up the MAGA faithful with rallies in the reddest parts of red states.
Axios compared Texas to "a late-season football showdown against an SEC rival": Republicans are still in the game, but defeat is a real possibility.
In Kansas, Sen. Roger Marshall "has stopped the bleeding," but it’s unclear whether there’s enough time left to save his seat, the report notes.
According to Axios, Republicans "are quietly bullish" on Michigan, though they acknowledge they need key groups, especially Black voters, to break heavily in their favor.
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) sees multiple paths to 51 seats. No one disputes that North Carolina will elect a Democratic senator, and Republicans’ talk of flipping Georgia now seems a foregone conclusion.
According to the report, "If just two of the next tier of Ohio, Kansas and Alaska flip, the Senate would be split 50-50 before factoring in other competitive races, like Michigan, Iowa and Maine. In Maine, Republicans and Democrats are consumed by competing fears. Republicans are terrified that a national wave will be big enough to wash away Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME)."