The stakes couldn’t be higher.
The U.S. is ensnared in an escalating war with Iran, inflation is crushing America's poorest citizens, masked immigration agents are "vanishing" tens of thousands and, in their effort to do so, have taken American lives.
Democrats are laying the groundwork to impeach President Donald Trump — but if they're going to convict him in 2027, they've got to at least win back the Senate on Nov. 3.
Pollsters say it isn't a sure thing — but it can be done.
Of the U.S. Senate's 100 seats, there are 35 seats up for grabs in this midterm election. With 34 Democrats firmly ensconced in the Senate, the party needs 17 victories to take back control.
The Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan and independent analysis group, puts nine races in the solid Democrat column, three in the likely Democrat column, and one in the leaning Democrat. Seven races remain toss-ups.
Harvard University’s Election Forecaster, which allots every candidate a percentage rate for victory, found Dems have favorable odds in six out of seven — but Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the Center for Politics forecasts Democrats only have 49 Senate seats secured, and five key races could still allow Republicans to keep control.
Going strictly by campaign coffers, Election Day appears to be the Democrats’ to lose. Nine out of 10 top fundraisers are Democrats. The top two Republican earners are Sen. Susan Collins, a toss-up state candidate, and Lindsey Graham — who died in July.
But campaigns are about more than just money. Here's a run-down of the key Senate battlegrounds that have recently come into play.
Republican US Senator Dan Sullivan and Democratic US Senate candidate Mary Peltola participate in a debate in Anchorage, Alaska, US, October 15, 2026. REUTERS/Kerry Tasker
Former U.S. Rep. Mary Peltola: A Yup’ik Alaska Native, Peltola, 53, became the first Alaska Native and the first woman to represent her state in the House of Representatives in 2022. Her campaign slogan is "Fish. Family. Freedom" — and she takes those fish very seriously.
Sen. Dan Sullivan: Alaska's U.S. senator since 2015, Sullivan, 61, spent 30 years with the U.S. Marine Corps and served in former President George W. Bush's administration. Sullivan's sticking close to Trump this election cycle — even as Peltola uses the Trump administration as a weapon against him.
Peltola's campaign was sent scrambling last month when the New York Times reported she'd shoved an aide and used two slurs — one beginning with an F and the other an R. Peltola's reps called the report an exaggeration and highlighted key context — that she was grieving the loss of her husband and mother.
Sen. Dan Sullivan, meanwhile, has faced public scrutiny for amassing millions while serving in the Senate and spending big campaign bucks on luxury dinners outside his home state — even as his constituents suffer at the gas pump and grocery store.
Sullivan also has something potentially worse than a scandal: A doppelgänger who filed to run against him as an independent.
Peltola ranks seventh amongst all 2026 senatorial candidates when it comes to fundraising, bringing in $32 million, Federal Election Commission data show. The real Sullivan, meanwhile, collected just $13 million. The “fake” Dan Sullivan pulled in roughly $30,000.
The Cook Political Report has bumped this race from leaning red to a proper toss-up. Harvard gives Peltola a 75 percent chance of claiming victory. Sabato’s Crystal Ball sees the state leaning blue.
LEFT: Josh Turek, the Democrat running for Iowa's open Senate sits after attending a roundtable discussion on healthcare in Des Moines, Iowa, U.S., June 22, 2026. Picture taken with a mobile phone. REUTERS/Nathan Layne/File Photo. RIGHT: US Representative Ashley Hinson (R-IA), Iowa Republican nominee for US Senate, delivers remarks on the day US President Donald Trump is scheduled to speak at the Faith & Freedom Coalition "Road to Majority" Conference, Washington D.C., U.S., June 26, 2026. REUTERS/Nathan Howard
U.S. Rep. Ashley Hinson: A former reporter for KCRG-TV, Hinson, 43, oft described as a firm MAGA candidate, joined the U.S. Congress in 2021 and has established an equally firm reputation for missing votes. Trump endorsed Hinson in September.
State Rep. Josh Turek: A Paralympian gold medalist for Team USA, Turek, 47, has been representing Iowans since 2021. Turek, born with spina bifida caused by his father's exposure to Agent Orange in Vietnam, is campaigning on health care reform and affordability.
Hinson was hit with an ethics complaint in September over accusations her "shadow lobbyist" husband Matt Arenholz benefitted from her position of power. Hinson denied the claims, dismissing her husband as an insurance agent working from their basement, then begged constituents for gas money. That did not go well. Nor did Hinson's campaign claim that she fought to release the Epstein Files, slammed as dishonest by many.
Turek has also missed votes.
Turek ranks 17th for fundraising with $20 million in his arsenal. Hinson, meanwhile, has brought in $13 million.
Get used to reading this: Cook bumped this leaning-red race to a toss-up, noting “even Republicans are sounding the alarm.” Harvard puts the tight odds at 51 percent for Turek and the Crystal Ball colors this one yellow, again, for a toss-up.
Sen. Roger Marshall: An OB-GYN and a millionaire, Marshall, 66, has supported Trump from the very beginning of his term as senator, which began after the Capitol riots on Jan. 6, 2021. Marshall controversially continued to challenge former President Joe Biden’s victory.
Adam Hamilton: A United Methodist megachurch pastor with a history of voting Democrat and Republican, Hamilton, 62, hopes to lure conservative voters away from Marshall with a campaign platform focused on affordability.
Marshall's medical practice was recently revealed to have sued hundreds of patients, mostly young mothers, for debt. Eighty-one were arrested for missing court dates — one woman was eight months pregnant at the time.
Hamilton's opponents accuse him of ignoring child sex abuse at a church youth camp in 2005 and 2006. His campaign says the church developed its screening and training policies in the years that followed, and Hamilton encouraged a survivor to come forward.
Marshall’s campaign has raised $20 million, ranking his campaign the third-highest earner among Republicans and 13th among all candidates. Hamilton’s brought in $13 million.
Once again, Kansas used to lean right for Cook — now it’s a toss-up. Hamilton’s moderate message has done surprisingly well as Marshall battles voters’ outrage over high fuel and fertilizer prices. While Sabato’s Crystal Ball agrees this race is a toss-up, Harvard puts Hamilton’s odds at just 40 percent.
LEFT: US Senator Susan Collins (R-ME) reacts during the opening of a new wastewater treatment facility in Windham, Maine, US October 8, 2026. REUTERS/Amanda Sabga. RIGHT: Democratic US Senate candidate Troy Jackson holds a campaign event in Bath, Maine, US, October 5, 2026. REUTERS/Aleksandra Michalska.
Sen. Susan Collins: A fifth-term U.S. Senator, Collins, 73, has been representing Maine in Washington, D.C. since 1996. Collins was once seen as a moderate, but her decision not to block Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh's appointment — and open the door to the overturning of Roe v. Wade — haunts her still, as it has allowed Democrats to paint her as entirely pro-MAGA.
Troy Jackson: A former Maine state Senator and logger, Jackson, 58, is best known for being neither Susan Collins nor his predecessor as Democratic candidate, Graham Platner, who stepped down after a former girlfriend accused him of sexual assault.
Collins has been accused of corruption after ProPublica revealed she'd directed federal cash to a contractor who contributed heavily to her 2020 campaign. Collins may also have violated a law she herself helped pass when she failed to report nearly $400,000 in stock trades.
Jackson's temper has made trouble for his campaign — especially after he told Collins to "shut up" during a recent debate. An old police report also revealed he'd been accused of punching a guy and pushing his partner, Lana. Jackson admits to the former and denies the latter.
Collins, the Republican Party's top earner, has raised $24 million — not much more than Jackson’s $20 million.
Another leaning right-turned-toss-up for Cook and a toss-up for Sabato’s Crystal Ball. But Harvard gives Jackson a 73 percent chance of victory.
LEFT: Republican US Senate candidate Mike Rogers speaks to the press in the spin room after taking part in a debate with Democratic rival candidate Abdul El-Sayed in Grand Rapids, Michigan, US, October 8, 2026. REUTERS/Jim Vondruska. RIGHT: Democratic US Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed arrives to speak to the press in the spin room after taking part in a debate with Republican rival candidate Mike Rogers, in Grand Rapids, Michigan, US, October 8, 2026. REUTERS/Jim Vondruska
Abdul El-Sayed: An epidemiologist and Rhodes Scholar, El-Sayed, 41, is a progressive Democrat running on the promise that he will fight for Medicaid for all — and against corporate power in Washington, D.C.
Former U.S. Rep. Mike Rogers: A former FBI agent and House member, Rogers, 63, seeks to return to Washington after 11 years in the private sector. This is his second bid to represent Michigan in the Senate. He lost to Sen. Elissa Slotkin in 2024. Trump endorsed Rogers in March.
El-Sayed has been repeatedly attacked for his decision to appear with Hasan Piker — the controversial pundit who once said (and later apologized for saying) "America deserved 9/11" — on the primary campaign trail. El-Sayed has disavowed Piker's remarks and repeatedly said he'd rather talk about issues in Michigan than "a Twitch streamer in California." That hasn't stopped Rogers' campaign from painting El-Sayed, who is Muslim, as an extremist, a threat to Jewish voters and a terrorist.
Rogers, meanwhile, has been plagued by his decision to appoint two faith leaders from Mark Barclay’s Living Word Church after it was revealed three ministers had been convicted for sexually abusing children. Rogers has kept his mouth clamped shut on the issue. El-Sayed also likes to call Rogers "Florida man," a snarky reference to the $1.6 million home Rogers bought and named as his primary residence in 2022.
El-Sayed ranks fifth for fundraising with $45 million in his campaign coffers. Rogers has brought in less than half that amount with $20 million.
This race is a toss-up for Cook, but Sabato’s Crystal Ball finds the race leaning left and Harvard gives El-Sayed a 74 percent chance of winning.
LEFT: US Senator Jon Husted (R-OH) gestures during a campaign rally for Husted and gubernatorial candidate Vivek Ramaswamy in Youngstown, Ohio, US, October 12, 2026. REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque. RIGHT: Former US Senator Sherrod Brown (D-OH), Democratic US Senate candidate, looks on during a campaign rally as early voting continues in Ohio, in Cuyahoga Falls, Ohio, US, October 9, 2026. REUTERS/Shannon Stapleton
Sen. Jon Husted: A lifelong politician, Husted, 59, has served in Ohio's House of Representatives and Senate and has assumed the titles of lieutenant governor and secretary of state. Husted was appointed by Gov. Mike DeWine to replace Vice President JD Vance in 2025. Trump endorsed Husted in April.
Former Sen. Sherrod Brown: Also a lifelong politician, Brown, 73, represented Ohio in the Senate from 2007 to 2025, when he lost his seat to Sen. Bernie Moreno (R).
Both candidates have accused one another of accepting donations from associates of Jeffrey Epstein.
In Husted's case, it was Les Wexner, Epstein's billionaire business partner until 2007, and the donation was a $116,000 contribution to his campaign to become lieutenant governor. Husted said he donated "all available funds" — $34,000 — to a cafe that supports survivors of human trafficking.
Brown received $100,000 from people who appear in the Epstein Files such as George Soros, Larry Summers, Barry Diller and Brad Karp.
Brown is the third top earner among senatorial candidates with $61 million, compared with Husted’s $19 million.
Once again, this is a former right-leaning state Cook now defines as a toss-up. The Crystal Ball concurs and Harvard believes Brown has a 68 percent chance in November.
State Rep. James Talarico: A former public-school teacher, Talarico, 37, won a seat in the Texas House in 2018, flipping a district Trump won two years before. Talarico is also a Christian who quotes scripture but supports reproductive and trans rights.
Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton: An attorney and former member of Texas's House of Representatives and Senate, Paxton, 63, has served as attorney general since 2015. Trump controversially endorsed Paxton over Sen. John Cornyn in a GOP runoff in May.
Buckle up, kids, we're going for a ride.
Paxton:
Talarico knows the name of a drag queen and did not spend time in a mental hospital — despite the claims of conservative influencers platformed by Elon Musk.
Talarico is the second-highest earner with a stunning $128 million (he’s beaten only by Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-GA) and his $131 million). Paxton’s campaign has brought in just $19 million — but of course, that doesn’t include the $153 million Elon Musk dumped into a super PAC backing his campaign.
Cook downgraded this race from leans right to toss up. Sabato’s Crystal Ball also calls the race a toss up and Harvard puts Talarico’s chances at 55 percent.
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