Lying Republicans just admitted their victory strategy — and it can be stopped

Last week, House Speaker Mike Johnson said there would be no votes this week. (That’s after canceling votes last week.) The White House, meanwhile, said it has begun mass firings of federal workers because the congressional Democrats haven’t caved to reopen the government.

The combined news is being reported as a “leverage,” as if these were normal rounds of negotiation between equal sides. The AP said it was an “attempt to exert more pressure on Democratic lawmakers” — the blandest possible way of saying coercion. “Take the deal or else” isn’t a reason for anyone to say yes. It’s the best reason in the world to say no.

But coercion isn’t the Republicans’ only tool.

In a call with the House Freedom Caucus, Johnson said, "We worked on rescissions, and there'll be more of that, we expect, in the days ahead." And: "Now, we would like to do another reconciliation bill this fall, before the end of the calendar year, and potentially, a third one in the spring, where we will also show more and more fiscal responsibility."

Translation: if the president has to give in to the Democrats’ demand for renewing health insurance subsidies, don’t worry. We can come back later with clawbacks (“rescissions”) that require a simple majority (“reconciliation bill”) to pass a Republican-controlled Congress.

In other words, Johnson is announcing his intention to cheat.

The Democrats are demanding a suite of concessions related to the Affordable Care Act and Medicaid (namely, restoring cuts made to it under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act). But their demands will mean nothing if the Republicans can steal back money after promising it.

The Democrats’ demands will also mean nothing if Trump later finds a way to send some health care money to people who voted for him but not to people who didn’t. This is called impoundment and impoundment is illegal. The regime, even now, is impounding money intended for cities and states run by Democrats. It’s yet another bid to extort the Democrats in the Congress into accepting Trump’s terms.

(The Republicans on the US Supreme Court know impoundment is illegal but have occasionally ruled that it’s legal if a Republican does it.)

Any deal involving the Democrats’ demands on health care must have reassurances that Trump and the GOP won’t go back on their word. I don’t see how that’s possible with the speaker of the House saying out loud that Hell will freeze over before the Democrats can trust him.

Indeed, during a presser, Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries was asked: “If Republicans were to commit to putting forward a vote on extending the ACA subsidies, would that bring Democrats to the negotiating table?”

His reply: "Republicans have zero credibility, zero."

I don’t know how this is going to end. Neither does Tiffany Carlock. She’s an activist who uses her newsletter, Candidly Tiff, to educate people about civics, strategy and what’s really happening in politics.

In this brief interview, we touch on whether the Democrats are “winning” the shutdown fight, the role of “the Epstein files” in their thinking, how they are breaking through a media landscape coded in Trump’s favor, and what to do in this age of rampant lawlessness.

“Democrats have truth on their side and are using it,” Tiff said.

JS: First, are the Democrats winning the fight over the government shutdown? I'm skeptical, but what do you think? And why?

TC: Democrats are “winning” on the messaging front but personally, I don’t think anyone wins when the government shuts down. Republicans went into the fight thinking Democrats would cave, but they have held strong. This has stunned the legacy media as well as some Democrats.

House Speaker Mike Johnson’s decision to keep his caucus home is a very poor strategy and he looks weak. Refusing to negotiate and swear-in Adelita Grijalva looks so bad on his part. Johnson has proven he has no idea how to govern. Even Majorie Taylor Greene, of all people, has called Johnson and John Thune out. The “clean CR” framing did not work for Republicans like they thought it would.

What do you think of the role of the Epstein files? Some Democrats are making the case that Johnson is keeping the government closed to protect Trump. How does that fit into your thinking?

I think it’s a legitimate talking point considering Congresswoman-elect Grijalva is the 218th vote needed for the Epstein file petition to make it to the House floor. Sometimes 1 + 1 = 2, so why not use Johnson’s weakness to create a Democratic advantage? This issue has been a major point of contention since right before the August recess.

Is it being done to protect Trump? I doubt it. I think Johnson is just scared of losing control of his conference and leadership. A vote on the files will be embarrassing for him. Trump has the Department of Justice to protect him, so he seems unbothered.

As you know, the mainstream news is coded in ways favorable to the Republicans. And yet the Democrats' messaging seems to be getting through to people. What's going on? How do you explain that?

Two things that are working:

One, Democrats are calling lies LIES! This is something they have never been good at because they like to play nice. But the gloves are off. Finally!

Two, the messaging is simple: healthcare costs will rise. In this economy, that message resonates and people will get premium increases in the mail soon enough. Democrats have truth on their side and are using it as leverage. Repetition matters and they are marching to the same beat. Unity is important.

How does this end? If Trump caves, what have the Democrats accomplished — protecting GOP voters from their choices?

I have no idea how this ends, but I have a few guesses. Marjorie Taylor Greene putting pressure on Johnson is a significant development. Trump will never admit to caving and even if did, he is Trump.

Letting the credits expire would hurt Republicans, but do we want to dismantle the healthcare system to get a win? I am conflicted on this.

The most likely outcome is Democrats back off the immigration language changes and get an extension of Affordable Care Act premiums for one year. That would be a win for the American people. Trump can pretend to work on a new fabulous concept of a plan.

Eventually Republicans will need to negotiate or kill the filibuster to pass a continuing resolution. This is on them.

My theory is that the Democrats should reclaim law and order, and perhaps use the lessons of the shutdown as a foundation for that. This president is lawless. His party is lawless. You want to heal our divisions? Well, enforce the law! Thoughts?

My rebuttal to that is: Who is going to enforce the law? The DOJ? They are compromised. The judiciary branch for the most part is seemingly the only non-compromised check and balance we have left. While slow, the courts are holding up the law for the most part.

Congress cannot enforce the law. Its role is to legislate. So now we have to rely on states to sue and win in court to stop the lawlessness of the DOJ, the FBI and the White House. This is why democracy is dying. The legislative branch has mostly ceded its Article 1 power. We are in hell, as I like to say, and it will take the courts and the American people to save what little of our democracy is left.